Sports from the Basement

Record8634−7100−6854.9% of 15734 decided · 15802 settled

Return on investment−0.99%staked at the recommended bet size

Worst stretch−60.28%Fri 2 Oct, 7 bets

Scope

Bets rated 4 or 5, one per side, at the Consensus price — the average across the books we cover. Sun 30 Aug – Mon 5 Oct.

Daily ROI18 losing days of 37

SegmentW−L−DHitROIN

Moneyline202−122−062.3%—324

Spread168−207−344.8%—378

Total173−163−651.5%—342

Props8091−6608−5955.0%−0.72%14758

How these are priced and staked. Each bet is graded at the last Consensus price before the game — close to the closing number, not the price on the board when the bet appeared — and staked at the size the board recommended: full Kelly on a 10-unit bankroll. At the first price a reader could have taken, the same stakes returned +1.41%. At one unit a bet instead, they returned −4.74%.

The settled bets

The 25 most recently graded, at the Consensus price. Every graded bet in this scope is in the download. Download this scope as CSV

Day	Match	Bet	Price	Result
Mon 5 Oct	Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento KingsNBA	Sacramento Kings +3.5Point Spread	−110	lost
Mon 5 Oct	Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsNFL	Bijan Robinson Bijan Robinson70+ Rushing Yards	−272	won
Mon 5 Oct	Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsNFL	Chris Olave Chris Olave70+ Receiving Yards	−227	won
Mon 5 Oct	at NHL	Jeremy Swayman U 24.5Player Saves	−110	won
Mon 5 Oct	at NHL	Brandon Hagel U 0.5Player Power Play Points	−175	won
Mon 5 Oct	at NHL	Jamie Drysdale U 1.5Player Shots on Goal	−190	won
Mon 5 Oct	at NHL	Travis Sanheim U 1.5Player Blocked Shots	+132	lost
Mon 5 Oct	Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta HawksNBA	Atlanta HawksMoneyline	−164	lost
Mon 5 Oct	Chicago White Sox at Cleveland GuardiansMLB	Anthony Kay O 1.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed	−135	lost
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	Kevin Lankinen U 27.5Player Saves	−115	won
Sun 4 Oct	Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersNFL	Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown60+ Receiving Yards	−250	won
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	Lars Eller U 1.5Player Shots on Goal	−185	lost
Sun 4 Oct	Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles DodgersMLB	Shohei Ohtani U 0.5Batter Home Runs	−280	won
Sun 4 Oct	Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles DodgersMLB	Max Muncy U 0.5Batter Singles	−247	won
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	J.T. Miller U 0.5Player Power Play Points	−200	won
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	Alexis Lafreniere U 0.5Player Power Play Points	−300	won
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	Nick Schmaltz U 0.5Player Power Play Points	−275	lost
Sun 4 Oct	at NHL	Logan Cooley U 0.5Player Power Play Points	−250	won
Sun 4 Oct	Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersNFL	Tre Tucker U 0.5Total Rushing Attempts	−105	won
Sun 4 Oct	Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersNFL	Malik Benson U 4.5Total Rushing Attempts	−135	won
Sun 4 Oct	Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersNFL	Malik Benson U 16.5Total Rushing Yards	−110	won
Sun 4 Oct	Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksNFL	Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jaxon Smith-Njigba75+ Receiving Yards	−295	won
Sun 4 Oct	Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersNFL	Marvin Mims U 1.5Total Receptions	−200	won
Sun 4 Oct	Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersNFL	Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey50+ Rushing Yards	−267	won
Sun 4 Oct	Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersNFL	Mike Evans Mike Evans30+ Receiving Yards	−260	won

What the model claimed, and what happened

Tue 6 Oct · 253,142 settled predictions

32.4%claimed, averaged

33.6%actually happened

0.1478Brier score, lower is better

+0.337skill against a constant guess

Close to honest on average — 32.4% claimed against 33.6% observed. That average hides the finding below it.

The further we depart from the market, the more we overstate

Every prediction, grouped by the rating the model gave it. Low ratings track the price closely and are calibrated; the strongest depart furthest, and that is where the claim and the outcome come apart.

RatingClaimedActualGapGap, to scalen

Every prediction32.4%33.6%−1.2253,142

Rated 019.0%20.4%−1.4185,635

Rated 168.7%69.7%−1.163,680

Rated 381.5%76.9%+4.62,272

Rated 463.0%60.9%+2.11,012

Rated 572.3%57.1%+15.2543

Why a rating is capped rather than trusted at the top of its range, and why this site publishes no return by rating: the ordering of these buckets is stable, their levels are not.

Calibration, market by market

Claimed probability along the bottom, the fitted correction up the side; the faint diagonal is perfect calibration. 15 markets carry a fitted curve — the rest are measured but not yet fitted, and are in the table below rather than dropped.

Batter hitsn = 46,026

claimed →

Batter total basesn = 45,676

claimed →

receiving_yardsn = 24,044

claimed →

Batter doublesn = 15,449

claimed →

Batter RBIn = 15,108

claimed →

offense_receptionsn = 11,986

claimed →

rushing_yardsn = 11,967

claimed →

Pitcher strikeoutsn = 6,751

claimed →

passing_yardsn = 5,235

claimed →

Moneylinen = 3,041

claimed →

rushing_attemptsn = 2,476

claimed →

team_totaln = 1,420

claimed →

Pitcher earned runsn = 1,324

claimed →

Pitcher hits allowedn = 1,306

claimed →

offense_powerplay_pointsn = 496

claimed →

Where we are worst

Every market we publish a board for, sorted by skill — the Brier score against a constant guess at the same base rate. Below zero the model lost to that guess: 13 of 70 markets. Nothing is removed and nothing is sorted flatteringly.

18 sit on fewer than 500 settled predictions. A skill score swings hard on a small sample, so those rows follow the rest rather than leading them — reported, not ranked.

MarketClaimedActualBrierSkilln

team_totalNCAA FB47.0%50.0%0.2573−0.0291,068

SpreadNCAA FB47.5%49.9%0.2545−0.0181,083

TotalNCAA FB47.9%49.9%0.2537−0.0151,079

Pitcher outsMLB47.5%50.0%0.2514−0.006936

rushing_attemptsNCAA FB46.9%50.1%0.2506−0.002731

TotalMLB48.7%50.0%0.2499+0.000596

Pitcher earned runsMLB48.0%50.0%0.2498+0.001928

Pitcher hits allowedMLB48.5%50.0%0.2494+0.002918

horse_exacta_baseline2.1%2.1%0.0203+0.00989,795

horse_exacta2.1%2.1%0.0202+0.01289,795

horse_win_baseline13.9%13.9%0.1179+0.01218,226

horse_exacta_box_baseline4.2%4.2%0.0391+0.01845,092

horse_exacta_box4.1%4.2%0.0389+0.02445,092

horse_place_baseline27.1%27.1%0.1916+0.03017,952

Racing · win13.9%13.9%0.1153+0.03518,226

SpreadMLB47.2%49.5%0.2412+0.035598

Racing · place25.8%27.1%0.1901+0.03817,952

Racing · show38.1%39.8%0.2295+0.04217,315

Batter singlesMLB49.1%49.9%0.2383+0.04711,010

horse_show_baseline39.8%39.8%0.2265+0.05417,315

MoneylineMLB48.1%50.0%0.2303+0.079588

passing_attemptsNCAA FB34.1%37.7%0.2119+0.098979

Batter total basesMLB25.4%28.5%0.1777+0.12832,372

offense_touchdownsNCAA FB10.9%11.8%0.0872+0.1651,824

offense_receptionsNCAA FB34.5%37.7%0.1933+0.1774,777

offense_touchdownsNFL6.7%8.0%0.0601+0.1813,961

passing_attemptsNFL33.8%35.5%0.1876+0.181797

horse_all_baseline9.6%9.6%0.0695+0.197188,380

Racing · all pools9.3%9.6%0.0693+0.199188,380

Batter RBIMLB49.0%50.0%0.2001+0.20010,679

rushing_yardsNCAA FB31.9%33.2%0.1762+0.2056,663

receiving_yardsNCAA FB27.3%29.3%0.1619+0.21811,307

offense_pointsNHL33.4%32.7%0.1676+0.2382,793

rushing_attemptsNFL40.8%42.9%0.1863+0.2401,576

passing_yardsNCAA FB36.1%39.9%0.1799+0.2503,335

passing_touchdownsNCAA FB37.8%40.6%0.1773+0.2651,844

Batter hitsMLB30.1%30.8%0.1549+0.27432,731

offense_receptionsNFL33.9%35.1%0.1632+0.2846,883

Pitcher strikeoutsMLB37.3%37.5%0.1657+0.2934,704

receiving_yardsNFL26.3%27.3%0.1398+0.29610,794

passing_touchdownsNFL37.1%37.8%0.1632+0.306791

passing_yardsNFL39.3%42.0%0.1680+0.3101,330

Batter runsMLB26.6%27.1%0.1326+0.32921,457

rushing_yardsNFL33.2%33.6%0.1464+0.3444,024

offense_shotsNHL31.3%31.5%0.1365+0.3684,653

offense_assistsNHL29.1%29.6%0.1283+0.3852,105

MoneylineNCAA FB49.0%50.1%0.1495+0.402943

offense_goalsNHL23.7%24.0%0.0926+0.4923,304

Batter doublesMLB49.2%49.9%0.1190+0.52410,979

Batter home runsMLB27.1%27.4%0.0754+0.62121,718

Batter stolen basesMLB33.2%33.3%0.0621+0.72013,574

Batter triplesMLB30.4%30.5%0.0181+0.9156,972

SpreadNBA42.6%50.0%0.3244−0.2986

MoneylineNBA47.8%50.0%0.2970−0.1886

TotalNHL47.8%50.0%0.2730−0.092158

passing_completionsNCAA FB46.0%50.0%0.2620−0.048368

TotalNFL48.9%49.7%0.2556−0.022157

passing_interceptionsNFL49.1%50.0%0.2551−0.020240

SpreadNFL47.8%50.0%0.2541−0.017152

team_totalNFL48.8%50.0%0.2512−0.005188

passing_completionsNFL48.7%50.0%0.2495+0.002234

defense_blocksNHL46.6%50.0%0.2467+0.013110

rushing_touchdownsNFL46.7%50.0%0.2456+0.0176

team_totalNHL49.0%50.0%0.2430+0.028164

MoneylineNHL46.9%49.7%0.2340+0.064157

SpreadNHL47.6%49.1%0.2314+0.074159

TotalNBA49.1%50.0%0.2290+0.0846

MoneylineNFL48.7%49.7%0.2284+0.086153

defense_savesNHL27.6%33.3%0.1632+0.266231

offense_powerplay_pointsNHL48.2%50.0%0.1344+0.462496

When the model changed

Every day the blend’s source weights were rewritten. A record is only meaningful against a model that was not quietly swapped underneath it.

DayWeightsBoardsSources

Tue 6 Oct336623

Mon 5 Oct1852

Mon 14 Sep211

Fri 28 Aug412

Tue 12 May9129

Mon 6 Apr412

Mon 9 Feb5118

Sun 18 Jan1914