Track record
Every bet the model rated 4 or higher — the calls it stands behind — settled and unedited. The 3s are published too, and the floor above switches to them.
Rated 4+
Record157−459−125.5% of 616 decided · 617 settled
Return on investment+8.36%per unit staked, flat stakes
Worst stretch−45.29%Thu 3 Sep, 114 bets
Scope
Bets rated 4 and above, at the best price among the books this site shops. Sun 30 Aug – Fri 4 Sep. Most of these are plus-money bets, so fewer than half of them win and the return is still positive — the price is doing the work rather than the hit rate.
Daily ROI3 losing days of 6
SegmentW−L−DHitROIN
Moneyline7−8−1Not enough settled bets to draw a conclusion
Spread1−6−0Not enough settled bets to draw a conclusion
Total2−6−0Not enough settled bets to draw a conclusion
Props147−439−025.1%+8.40%586
How these are priced. Each bet is graded at the last price we recorded before the game, which is close to the closing number rather than the number on the board when the bet first appeared. Where a line moved toward the model after it published, this understates the result; where it moved away, it flatters it. We do not yet store the price at publication, so we do not claim to know which.
The settled bets
Newest first, strongest rating first within a day — the order they were published in. The 100 most recent of 617; the rest are in the download. Download this scope as CSV
| Rating | Day | Match | Bet | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 4 Sep | Ipswich v LiverpoolSoccer | Ipswich +1Point Spread | −103 | lost | |
| Fri 4 Sep | Ipswich v LiverpoolSoccer | Liverpool −1.5Point Spread | +168 | won | |
| Fri 4 Sep | Ipswich v LiverpoolSoccer | LiverpoolMoneyline | −160 | won | |
| Fri 4 Sep | Ipswich v LiverpoolSoccer | U 2.5Total Goals (Over/Under) | +175 | won | |
| Fri 4 Sep | Real Betis v Real MadridSoccer | Real BetisMoneyline | +650 | won | |
| Fri 4 Sep | Real Betis v Real MadridSoccer | U 2.5Total Goals (Over/Under) | +200 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Tanner Bibee U 17.5Pitcher Outs | +140 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Michael Wacha U 17.5Pitcher Outs | +140 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Osleivis Basabe U 0.5Batter Singles | −140 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Cal Quantrill U 17.5Pitcher Outs | −115 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Missouri TigersNCAA FB | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +55.5Point Spread | +105 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Real Sociedad v Celta VigoSoccer | Celta Vigo +0.5Point Spread | +111 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Patrick Bailey O 0.5Batter Stolen Bases | +4600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Myles Straw U 0.5Batter Singles | −134 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Tanner Bibee U 5.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed | +105 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | José Soriano U 5.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed | −120 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Angel Genao O 0.5Batter Triples | +2600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Nathaniel Lowe O 0.5Batter Triples | +12500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Jesús Sánchez O 0.5Batter Triples | +10000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Nathan Lukes O 0.5Batter Triples | +7000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland GuardiansMLB | Travis Bazzana O 0.5Batter Triples | +4000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Nick Loftin U 0.5Batter Singles | −128 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Javier Sanoja O 0.5Batter Doubles | +330 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Graham Pauley O 0.5Batter Doubles | +500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Agustín Ramírez O 0.5Batter Doubles | +400 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Sandy Alcantara U 6.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed | −135 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Nick Loftin O 0.5Batter Triples | +5000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Sandy Alcantara U 2.5Pitcher Earned Runs Allowed | +115 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Miami Marlins at Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Michael Wacha U 2.5Pitcher Earned Runs Allowed | −102 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Blaze Alexander O 0.5Batter Stolen Bases | +930 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Carlos Narváez O 0.5Batter Singles | +198 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Coby Mayo O 0.5Batter Singles | +158 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Eli White O 0.5Batter Singles | +130 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Dylan Beavers O 0.5Batter Singles | +165 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Pete Alonso O 0.5Batter Singles | +123 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Adley Rutschman O 0.5Batter Doubles | +420 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Isiah Kiner-Falefa O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Wilyer Abreu O 0.5Batter Doubles | +387 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Nick Sogard O 0.5Batter Doubles | +470 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Coby Mayo O 0.5Batter Doubles | +491 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Roman Anthony O 0.5Batter Doubles | +350 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Dylan Beavers O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Brandon Young U 17.5Pitcher Outs | −128 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Jarren Duran O 0.5Batter Triples | +2500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Gunnar Henderson O 0.5Batter Triples | +2000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore OriolesMLB | Carlos Narváez O 0.5Batter Triples | +12500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Matt Shaw U 0.5Batter Singles | −196 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Alex Bregman O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Garrett Mitchell O 0.5Batter Doubles | +550 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Kevin Gausman U 17.5Pitcher Outs | −118 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Carson Kelly O 0.5Batter Triples | +12500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsMLB | Seiya Suzuki O 0.5Batter Triples | +5500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Oneil Cruz O 0.5Batter Stolen Bases | +484 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Oneil Cruz O 0.5Batter Singles | +130 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Andrew Knizner O 0.5Batter Singles | +145 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Jung Hoo Lee U 0.5Batter Singles | +125 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Drew Gilbert O 0.5Batter Singles | +141 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Nate Furman O 0.5Batter Singles | +135 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Bryce Eldridge O 0.5Batter Singles | +146 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Turner Hill O 0.5Batter Singles | +118 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Turner Hill O 0.5Batter Doubles | +446 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Bryce Eldridge O 0.5Batter Doubles | +404 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Rafael Devers O 0.5Batter Doubles | +380 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Osleivis Basabe U 0.5Batter Doubles | −650 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Drew Gilbert O 0.5Batter Doubles | +445 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Christian Koss O 0.5Batter Doubles | +525 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Bryce Eldridge O 0.5Batter Triples | +6500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Nate Furman O 0.5Batter Triples | +6000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Drew Gilbert O 0.5Batter Triples | +4500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Nick Gonzales O 0.5Batter Triples | +3500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Andrew Knizner O 0.5Batter Triples | +1900 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh PiratesMLB | Spencer Horwitz O 0.5Batter Triples | +10000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Chicago White Sox at Houston AstrosMLB | Cam Smith U 0.5Batter Singles | −165 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Chicago White Sox at Houston AstrosMLB | Tristan Peters O 0.5Batter Doubles | +550 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Chicago White Sox at Houston AstrosMLB | LaMonte Wade O 0.5Batter Doubles | +630 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Chicago White Sox at Houston AstrosMLB | Hunter Brown U 17.5Pitcher Outs | −130 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Chicago White Sox at Houston AstrosMLB | Sam Antonacci O 0.5Batter Triples | +2200 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Victor Mesa U 0.5Batter Singles | −160 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Evan Carter U 0.5Batter Singles | −210 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Elias Díaz O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Nick Fortes O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Corey Seager O 0.5Batter Doubles | +440 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Cal Quantrill U 5.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed | −140 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Cody Freeman O 0.5Batter Triples | +10000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersMLB | Nick Fortes O 0.5Batter Triples | +8000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Sacramento AthleticsMoneyline | +183 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Alika Williams O 0.5Batter Doubles | +600 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Michael Stefanic O 0.5Batter Doubles | +700 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Jonah Heim O 0.5Batter Doubles | +506 | won | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Henry Bolte O 0.5Batter Triples | +2500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Alika Williams O 0.5Batter Triples | +2000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Dominic Canzone O 0.5Batter Triples | +7000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Michael Stefanic O 0.5Batter Triples | +10000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Jeff McNeil O 0.5Batter Triples | +8000 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | Sacramento Athletics at Seattle MarinersMLB | Jonah Heim O 0.5Batter Triples | +12500 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | St. Louis CardinalsMoneyline | +245 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | José Fermín O 0.5Batter Stolen Bases | +910 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | Will Smith O 0.5Batter Singles | +120 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | Enrique Hernández O 0.5Batter Singles | +175 | lost | |
| Thu 3 Sep | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersMLB | Pedro Pagés O 0.5Batter Singles | +230 | won |