Track record
Every bet the model rated 4 or 5, settled and unedited. Nothing is removed after the fact.
Rated 4 and 5
Record9544−7642−7655.5% of 17186 decided · 17262 settled
Return on investment−0.80%staked at the recommended bet size
Worst stretch−60.28%Fri 2 Oct, 7 bets
Scope
Bets rated 4 or 5, one per side, at the Consensus price — the average across the books we cover. Sun 30 Aug – Fri 6 Nov. Pools every rating rule run so far; "Current rule" shows the one in use today.
Daily ROI28 losing days of 67
SegmentW−L−DHitROIN
Moneyline210−129−061.9%—339
Spread188−220−746.1%—415
Total192−179−651.8%—377
Props8954−7114−6355.7%−0.43%16131
How these are priced and staked. Each bet is graded at the last Consensus price before the game — close to the closing number, not the price on the board when the bet appeared — and staked at the size the board recommended: full Kelly on a 10-unit bankroll. At the first price a reader could have taken, the same stakes returned +1.63%. At one unit a bet instead, they returned −3.74%.
The settled bets
The 25 most recently graded, at the Consensus price. Every graded bet in this scope is in the download. Download this scope as CSV
| Rating | Day | Match | Bet | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Everton v CoventrySoccer | Tyrique George Tyrique George1+ Shots on Target | −189 | won | |
| Fri 6 Nov | Sevilla v AlavesSoccer | Sevilla −0.5Point Spread | −110 | lost | |
| Fri 6 Nov | Sevilla v AlavesSoccer | Antonio Sivera Antonio SiveraGoalkeeper Saves | +100 | won | |
| Fri 6 Nov | Toulouse v StrasbourgSoccer | Conrad Harder Conrad Harder2+ Fouls | −118 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Orlando Magic at Phoenix SunsNBA | Khaman Maluach U 0.5Player Steals | +100 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore RavensNFL | LeQuint Allen U 0.5Total Receptions | +100 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton OilersNHL | Jason Dickinson U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −275 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Texas A&M-Commerce at Rice OwlsNCAA MBB | Rice OwlsMoneyline | −175 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Texas A&M-Commerce at Rice OwlsNCAA MBB | Rice Owls −3.5Point Spread | −114 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | St. Louis Blues at New Jersey DevilsNHL | Anthony Mantha U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −140 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg JetsNHL | Brayden Yager U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −150 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg JetsNHL | Neal Pionk U 0.5Player Power Play Points | −290 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL | Ben Kindel U 0.5Player Assists | −235 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL | Nikita Zadorov U 1.5Player Blocked Shots | +100 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Utah Mammoth at Montreal CanadiensNHL | Montreal Canadiens +1.5Point Spread | −230 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Utah Mammoth at Montreal CanadiensNHL | MacKenzie Weegar O 1.5Player Blocked Shots | +100 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Utah Mammoth at Montreal CanadiensNHL | MacKenzie Weegar MacKenzie Weegar2+ Blocked Shots | +100 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay LightningNHL | Brandon Hagel U 0.5Player Power Play Points | −295 | lost | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg JetsNHL | Isak Rosen U 0.5Player Total Points | −220 | won | |
| Thu 5 Nov | Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg JetsNHL | Cole Perfetti U 0.5Player Goals | −229 | won | |
| Wed 4 Nov | Miami Heat at Los Angeles ClippersNBA | Keaton Wagler O 0.5Player Steals + Blocks | −165 | lost | |
| Wed 4 Nov | San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles KingsNHL | Michael Kesselring U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −160 | won | |
| Wed 4 Nov | Calgary Flames at Seattle KrakenNHL | Bobby McMann U 0.5Player Assists | −263 | won | |
| Wed 4 Nov | Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio SpursNBA | Julian Champagnie Julian Champagnie1+ Player Assist | −230 | won | |
| Wed 4 Nov | Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix SunsNBA | Khaman Maluach O 0.5Player Blocks | −195 | won |
What the model claimed, and what happened
Fri 6 Nov · 192,881 settled predictions41.6%claimed, averaged
43.1%actually happened
0.1948Brier score, lower is better
+0.206skill against a constant guess
Close to honest on average — 41.6% claimed against 43.1% observed. That average hides the finding below it.
The further we depart from the market, the more we overstate
Every prediction, grouped by the rating the model gave it. Low ratings track the price closely and are calibrated; the strongest depart furthest, and that is where the claim and the outcome come apart.
RatingClaimedActualGapGap, to scalen
Every prediction41.6%43.1%−1.5192,881
Rated 029.2%31.0%−1.8125,983
Rated 165.3%65.9%−0.763,944
Rated 360.0%64.7%−4.71,594
Rated 459.7%61.5%−1.81,101
Rated 567.9%67.6%+0.4259
Why a rating is capped rather than trusted at the top of its range, and why this site publishes no return by rating: the ordering of these buckets is stable, their levels are not.
Calibration, market by market
Claimed probability along the bottom, the fitted correction up the side; the faint diagonal is perfect calibration. 33 markets carry a fitted curve — the rest are measured but not yet fitted, and are in the table below rather than dropped.
Where we are worst
Every market we publish a board for, sorted by skill — the Brier score against a constant guess at the same base rate. Below zero the model lost to that guess: 28 of 95 markets. Nothing is removed and nothing is sorted flatteringly.
41 sit on fewer than 500 settled predictions. A skill score swings hard on a small sample, so those rows follow the rest rather than leading them — reported, not ranked.
MarketClaimedActualBrierSkilln
rushing_yardsNCAA FB44.5%49.6%0.2570−0.0281,189
rushing_yardsNFL46.6%50.1%0.2543−0.017740
receiving_yardsNFL46.3%49.0%0.2537−0.0151,627
turnoversNBA46.2%50.0%0.2532−0.013870
defense_savesNHL48.3%49.2%0.2527−0.011785
receiving_yardsNCAA FB47.3%49.5%0.2525−0.0102,188
Batter total basesMLB44.8%51.4%0.2514−0.006906
team_totalNCAA FB48.8%50.0%0.2515−0.006576
points + reboundsNBA48.9%50.0%0.2515−0.0063,258
rushing_attemptsNCAA FB48.6%50.0%0.2512−0.005648
points + assists + reboundsNBA48.4%50.0%0.2510−0.0043,429
points + assistsNBA48.9%50.0%0.2509−0.0042,908
pointsNBA47.5%48.0%0.2496+0.0005,292
assists + reboundsNBA48.4%50.0%0.2485+0.0063,016
horse_exacta_baseline1.8%1.8%0.0180+0.007166,380
team_totalNHL47.8%50.0%0.2483+0.007508
horse_win_baseline13.1%13.1%0.1129+0.01023,516
passing_yardsNCAA FB47.9%50.2%0.2468+0.013645
horse_exacta_box_baseline3.7%3.7%0.0350+0.01483,208
rebounds_totalNBA48.0%48.8%0.2463+0.0145,278
horse_exacta1.8%1.8%0.0178+0.018166,380
offense_receptionsNCAA FB47.0%48.7%0.2446+0.0212,533
horse_place_baseline26.2%26.2%0.1887+0.02423,494
rushing_attemptsNFL48.5%48.8%0.2435+0.025841
horse_exacta_box3.6%3.7%0.0343+0.03683,208
Batter hitsMLB50.1%51.7%0.2401+0.039833
horse_show_baseline38.8%38.8%0.2276+0.04223,242
stealsNBA48.2%50.0%0.2380+0.0483,420
steals + blocksNBA46.0%50.0%0.2373+0.0513,000
defense_blocksNHL51.0%53.9%0.2351+0.0542,280
Batter singlesMLB47.3%47.9%0.2348+0.059840
Racing · win12.0%13.1%0.1057+0.07423,516
blocked_shotsNBA48.7%50.0%0.2287+0.0852,158
assistsNBA49.0%50.6%0.2282+0.0875,356
three_point_field_goals_madeNBA53.5%54.2%0.2265+0.0886,030
offense_receptionsNFL52.5%53.7%0.2265+0.0892,656
passing_touchdownsNCAA FB52.9%56.2%0.2207+0.1041,015
Racing · place23.8%26.2%0.1725+0.10723,494
offense_pointsNHL45.7%46.7%0.2221+0.10815,066
offense_shotsNHL54.8%55.8%0.2196+0.11015,669
Racing · show35.3%38.8%0.2092+0.11923,242
Batter runsMLB48.9%49.9%0.2140+0.144527
Batter RBIMLB40.1%41.6%0.2037+0.161789
offense_touchdownsNCAA FB14.3%15.7%0.1103+0.1664,281
horse_all_baseline7.6%7.6%0.0572+0.189319,840
offense_assistsNHL42.3%43.5%0.1970+0.19812,369
batter_walksMLB42.6%42.8%0.1877+0.234831
Racing · all pools7.1%7.6%0.0538+0.236319,840
offense_powerplay_pointsNHL38.6%40.3%0.1453+0.3969,126
offense_touchdownsNFL33.8%36.7%0.1397+0.3992,877
offense_goalsNHL37.4%38.4%0.1245+0.47319,008
Batter doublesMLB38.2%40.1%0.1252+0.479807
Batter stolen basesMLB34.2%34.7%0.0830+0.634756
Batter home runsMLB34.3%34.3%0.0653+0.710820
pointsNCAA MBB40.4%50.0%0.2909−0.16428
rushing_touchdownsNFL45.3%54.4%0.2703−0.09057
Pitcher strikeoutsMLB47.0%45.3%0.2593−0.04686
TotalNHL48.1%50.0%0.2608−0.043262
TotalMLB48.9%50.0%0.2589−0.03630
Pitcher outsMLB43.3%50.0%0.2575−0.03066
TotalNCAA MBB48.1%50.0%0.2566−0.02782
SpreadNCAA MBB47.0%49.4%0.2550−0.02081
SpreadNCAA FB48.2%50.1%0.2542−0.017397
TotalNCAA FB47.5%50.0%0.2536−0.014404
three_points_madeNCAA MBB47.1%50.0%0.2535−0.01422
SpreadNFL48.0%50.0%0.2531−0.01284
passing_interceptionsNCAA FB47.1%50.0%0.2527−0.011436
passing_attemptsNFL49.4%50.2%0.2512−0.005251
TotalNBA48.3%50.0%0.2503−0.001158
team_totalNBA50.0%50.0%0.2501−0.001318
team_totalNFL49.9%50.0%0.2500+0.000160
MoneylineMLB49.2%50.0%0.2493+0.00330
passing_yardsNFL50.6%51.1%0.2491+0.003237
passing_attemptsNCAA FB48.0%50.5%0.2488+0.005378
TotalNFL48.1%50.0%0.2487+0.00584
passing_completionsNCAA FB46.7%50.0%0.2481+0.008326
SpreadNBA48.9%49.7%0.2480+0.008157
batter_strikeoutsMLB48.2%50.0%0.2448+0.021118
passing_completionsNFL48.8%50.0%0.2445+0.022222
Pitcher hits allowedMLB48.1%50.0%0.2421+0.03264
reboundsNCAA MBB44.7%50.0%0.2418+0.03324
passing_interceptionsNFL48.3%50.0%0.2409+0.036226
MoneylineNHL48.9%50.6%0.2355+0.058253
MoneylineNCAA FB48.7%50.0%0.2336+0.066396
MoneylineNFL48.2%50.7%0.2286+0.08675
SpreadNHL48.7%50.0%0.2255+0.098262
Pitcher earned runsMLB51.6%56.6%0.2214+0.099113
batter_strike_outsMLB49.8%51.5%0.2230+0.107305
SpreadMLB49.2%50.0%0.2200+0.12032
passing_touchdownsNFL54.6%56.1%0.2112+0.142435
pitcher_walksMLB52.8%54.5%0.2079+0.16199
assistsNCAA MBB43.6%50.0%0.1988+0.20520
MoneylineNBA48.6%49.7%0.1914+0.234181
Batter triplesMLB2.2%1.8%0.0090+0.490222
MoneylineNCAA MBB48.8%49.4%0.0581+0.76877
When the model changed
Every day the blend’s source weights were rewritten. A record is only meaningful against a model that was not quietly swapped underneath it.
DayWeightsBoardsSources
Sat 7 Nov3871224
Mon 14 Sep211
Tue 12 May9129
Mon 6 Apr412
Mon 9 Feb5118
Sun 18 Jan1914