Sat 12 Sep

Every number here gets graded.

Sports from the Basement pulls projections from more than a dozen independent forecasters, weights each one by how accurate it has actually been, and blends them into a single number for every game, player and race. Then it prices that number against the live market and shows you where the two disagree.

Every call is graded once the result is in — hit rate, calibration and where the model is worst, market by market, published in full. A model that is never scored is just an opinion with a decimal point.

Create a free accountRead the record first

Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.

  • 12+forecast sources, weighted by measured skill
  • 9sports, plus every North American race card
  • Everypublished pick graded once it settles
  • Bothwhat the model got right, and where it is worst

Track record

Sun 30 Aug – Sat 12 Sep · every bet rated 3 or higher
Record
7307−10392−94
17793 settled
Hit rate
41.3%
of 17699 decided
Return
−8.35%
per unit staked, flat stakes
Worst day
−32.16%
Thu 3 Sep, 1097 bets
Full record
Best day, last 30+5.53%Sat 5 Sep · 686−751−9 · 1446 bets
Last 30 days−8.31%17793 bets · 41.3% hit

Sat 5 Sep, graded

Every bet of that day, rated 3 or higher, unedited
RatingMatchBetPriceResult
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati RedsMLBBrice Turang U 0.5Batter Singles+103won
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City RoyalsMLBNick Loftin U 0.5Batter Singles−131lost
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles DodgersMLBTyler Glasnow U 17.5Pitcher Outs+140lost
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado RockiesMLBJosé Fermín U 0.5Batter Singles+113won
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado RockiesMLBRamón Urías U 0.5Batter Singles−120won
Fordham Rams at North Dakota State BisonNCAA FBFordham Rams +41.5Point Spread−115won
Brighton v Leeds UnitedSoccerBrighton −1.5Point Spread+285lost
Brentford v SunderlandSoccerBrentford −1.5Point Spread+200lost
Brentford v SunderlandSoccerSunderland +0.5Point Spread+128won
Hull City v Aston VillaSoccerAston Villa −1.5Point Spread+250lost
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico MadridSoccerU 2.5Total Goals (Over/Under)−118lost
Columbus Crew v Colorado RapidsSoccerColumbus Crew −1.5Point Spread+270won

The day’s 12 highest-rated bets, at the best price among the books this site shops. Nothing is removed — every graded bet is on the record page, win and loss alike.

Today’s board

live odds · 37 Soccer games · public market dataodds 6h old
Sat 10:00 AMLiverpool−1.5+1283.5−2000Fulham+1.5−175—+4500Draw——+365—finalSat 10:00 AMAston Villa−0.5+1102.5+1211Nottingham Forest+0.5−155—+2252Draw——+240—finalSat 10:00 AMBournemouth−0.5+1152.5+1342Brentford+0.5−165—+1922Draw——+260—final

Sources earn their weight.

No source is trusted on reputation. Each one is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and a forecaster that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement between sources is not treated as evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.

Probabilities are built from measured error rather than assumption, and the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.

A model for this track, on this surface.

Every race is modelled on the history of that track and that surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.

Exotics are priced off the whole field, using the long-established correction that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning. Skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.

What you get free

The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, the day’s live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, and not as a trial.

What we never claim

No promised return, no edge over the market, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulatory attention, and they are the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.

How to check it

Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it before you decide whether the forecasts are worth anything, and read the method before you read the price.