Tue 29 Sep
Sports from the Basement pulls projections from more than a dozen independent forecasters, weights each one by how accurate it has actually been, and blends them into a single number for every game, player and race. Then it prices that number against the live market and shows you where the two disagree.
Every call is graded once the result is in — hit rate, calibration and where the model is worst, market by market, published in full. A model that is never scored is just an opinion with a decimal point.
Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.
| Rating | Match | Bet | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Drake Baldwin U 0.5Batter Doubles | −600 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Jesús Luzardo O 1.5Pitcher Total Hits Allowed | −135 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Jesús Luzardo O 2.5Pitcher Strikeouts | −200 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Trea Turner U 0.5Batter RBIs | −500 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Ha-Seong Kim U 0.5Batter Doubles | −1169 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Bryan De La Cruz U 0.5Batter Doubles | −850 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Mike Yastrzemski U 0.5Batter Doubles | −1200 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Matt Olson U 0.5Batter Doubles | −625 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | J.T. Realmuto U 0.5Batter Doubles | −750 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Kyle Schwarber U 0.5Batter Doubles | −950 | won | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Edmundo Sosa U 0.5Batter Doubles | −870 | lost | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesMLB | Trea Turner U 0.5Batter Doubles | −600 | won |
The day’s 12 highest-rated bets, at the Consensus price. Nothing is removed — every graded bet is on the record page, win and loss alike.
No source is trusted on reputation. Each is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and one that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement is not evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.
Probabilities are built from measured error: the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.
Every race is modelled on the history of that track and surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.
Exotics are priced off the whole field, correcting for the fact that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning — skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.
The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, not as a trial.
No promised return, no edge over the market, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulators, and the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.
Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it before you decide the forecasts are worth anything, and read the method before you read the price.