Fri 13 Nov

Every number here gets graded.

Every day we find sportsbook prices that are out of line with the rest of the market — and grade every one against the closing line.

Each signal names the book, the price, the fair price behind it and the price not to take below. Once its game starts it is open to everyone, and it is graded at the price we published — win or lose.

See today’s signalsCreate a free accountRead the record first

Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.

  • 344−422−1settled (W–L–P) of 1,080 signals published, −49.65u at the published price
  • 90.6%beat the closing line, of 955
  • +5.2%closing-line value over the market’s own drift, n 168 · 95% range +4.3% to +6.2%
  • −5.96%return over 767 settled

Includes 224 scorer or milestone signals, whose closing-line value is partly a product of how their fair price is built (method-affected).

Signals before 13 November were the same scan’s alerts, posted in real time to the operator and graded at the posted price, at the seven Illinois books.

Today’s board

live odds · 62 Soccer games · public market dataodds 2m old
Fri 12:00 PMMoldovaPK−1362+1452KazakhstanPK+116—+2001Draw——+200—finalFri 2:45 PMLuxembourgPK−1472+1400EstoniaPK+124—+2101Draw——+200—finalFri 2:45 PMSlovenia+0.5+1012+4320Switzerland−0.5−134—−1250Draw——+217—final

Sources earn their weight.

No source is trusted on reputation. Each is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and one that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement is not evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.

Probabilities are built from measured error: the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.

A model for this track, on this surface.

Every race is modelled on the history of that track and surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.

Exotics are priced off the whole field, correcting for the fact that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning — skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.

What you get free

The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, not as a trial.

What we never claim

No promised return, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulators, and the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.

How to check it

Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it, and read the method before you read the price.