Thu 5 Nov
Sports from the Basement pulls projections from more than a dozen independent forecasters, weights each one by how accurate it has actually been, and blends them into a single number for every game, player and race. Then it prices that number against the live market and shows you where the two disagree.
Every call is graded once the result is in — hit rate, calibration and where the model is worst, market by market, published in full. A model that is never scored is just an opinion with a decimal point.
Free includes the model’s projected line on every game. No card.
| Rating | Match | Bet | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks at Florida PanthersNHL | Ryan Donato U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −144 | won | |
| San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles KingsNHL | Michael Kesselring U 1.5Player Shots on Goal | −160 | won | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Washington WizardsNBA | Kingston Flemings U 5.5Player Assists | −148 | won | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn NetsNBA | Julius Randle U 0.5Player Blocks | −147 | won | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Boston CelticsNBA | Hugo González U 1.5Player Assists | −151 | won | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Boston CelticsNBA | Hugo González U 1.5Player Steals + Blocks | −190 | won | |
| Chicago Bulls at New York KnicksNBA | Jalen Brunson U 0.5Player Blocks | −275 | won | |
| Utah Jazz at New Orleans PelicansNBA | Karlo Matković U 1.5Player Blocks | −138 | won | |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix SunsNBA | Khaman Maluach O 0.5Player Blocks | −195 | won | |
| Lens v ComoSoccer | Amadou Haidara Amadou Haidara1+ Shots | −150 | won | |
| Lens v ComoSoccer | Anastasios Douvikas Anastasios Douvikas1+ Shots on Target | −285 | won | |
| Dortmund v Real BetisSoccer | Marc Roca Marc Roca1+ Shots | −146 | won |
The day’s 12 highest-rated bets, at the Consensus price. Nothing is removed — every graded bet is on the record page, win and loss alike.
No source is trusted on reputation. Each is scored against real outcomes, market by market, and one that cannot beat the category average is dropped to zero weight rather than quietly averaged in. Agreement is not evidence — five forecasters can be wrong together.
Probabilities are built from measured error: the uncertainty on a market is sized from how far its projections actually land from the result.
Every race is modelled on the history of that track and surface — a dirt sprint is not scored on turf routes run somewhere else. The model learns finish order directly, ranking a field rather than rating horses in isolation, and reads form as it stood on race day.
Exotics are priced off the whole field, correcting for the fact that a horse’s chance of running second is not simply its chance of winning — skipping that step is what makes naive exotic prices look better than they are.
The model’s projected score, spread and total on every game, live odds from the books we cover, live tote prices on every race, and the entire graded record. Permanently, not as a trial.
No promised return, no edge over the market, no win rate. Those are the claims that draw regulators, and the ones you would have to keep proving every month. The measurement is the product.
Every settled bet is on the record page with the price it was graded at, win and loss alike. Read it before you decide the forecasts are worth anything, and read the method before you read the price.
Anderlecht
Red Bull Salzburg
Sparta Praha
Bournemouth
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia