CHURCHILL DOWNS · Race 8 · Fern Creek S.

For Fillies Two Years Old. By Subscription Of $100 Each Or By Supplementary Nomination Of $1,000 Each At Time Of Entry. $500 To Pass The Entry Box; $500 Additional To Start, With $175,000 Guaranteed Plus An Additional $50,000 Ktdf For Ktdf Eligible Horses. After Payment Of 1% To All Owners Of Horses Finishing Sixth Through Last, 62% Of The Remaining Purse Shall Be Paid To The Owner Of The Winner, 20% To Second, 10% To Third, 5% To Fourth And 3% To Fifth. Weight, 122 Lbs. The Maximum Number Of Starters For The Fern Creek Will Be Limited To Fourteen (14). If More Than Fourteen (14) Entries Pass The Entry Box Preference Will Be Given To Graded Stakes Winners (in Order I-ii-iii), Then Highest Earnings. Any Horse Excluded From Running Because Of The Aforementioned Preference Shall Be Refunded The Entry Fee And Supplementary Nomination Fee If Applicable. Starters To Be Named Through The Entry Box By The Usual Time Of Closing. All Supplementary Nominations Will Be Required To Pay Entry And Starting Fees If They Participate. A Trophy Will Be Presented To The Winning Owner. Closed Wednesday, November 12, 2025 With 17 Nominations.

Race 8 of 12

Result

official
HorseWinPlaceShow
17On Time Girl$8.22$4.40$2.68
22Paige Turner$3.48$2.60
36A Fine Chardonnay$2.86
PoolFinishOnPaid
Exacta7-2$2.00$23.86
Trifecta7-2-6$0.50$15.19
Superfecta7-2-6-1$0.10$12.35
Super high five7-2-6-1-8$1.00$316.60
Fern Creek S.6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Fast · Purse $225,000
HorsePaceSpeedClassEVWinMLLive odds
1Solemn Vow122 lbBrian Hernandez, Jr.55.3816/131/4

Probability

Pace

Early
2.9
Middle
2.0
Finish
3.2
Post draw
13.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
55.3
Career best · average
89.0 · 80.0
Class, average · last
81 · 84
Power
87.3 · 3rd in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 1-1-0
Wins
25.0%
Earnings
$111,635
Per start
$18,605.83

Connections and form

Jockey
Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
Albert Stall, Jr. 1/10
Weight · days off
122 · 41d

3yo · Filly

Past performances
3 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Sat 18 OctKEENELAND6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight189.0Tyler Gaffalione119
Thu 11 SepCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight379.0Tyler Gaffalione119
Sat 2 AugSARATOGA6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight759.0Javier Castellano119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

2Paige Turner122 lbJose Ortiz55.3817/211/6

Probability

Pace

Early
3.2
Middle
3.6
Finish
1.2
Post draw
12.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
55.3
Career best · average
91.0 · 87.0
Class, average · last
81 · 85
Power
95.2 · 1st in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 1-3-0
Wins
25.0%
Earnings
$158,300
Per start
$39,575

Connections and form

Jockey
Jose Ortiz
Trainer
Cherie DeVaux 33/127
Weight · days off
122 · 28d

3yo · Filly

Past performances
3 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 31 OctCHURCHILL DOWNS7 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight187.0Axel Concepcion119
Sun 5 OctKEENELAND6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weightnot runJose Ortiz119
Sun 31 AugSARATOGA6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight277.0Jose Lezcano119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

3Woodstock122 lbGabriel Saez55.7808/125/1

Probability

Pace

Early
3.9
Middle
2.6
Finish
2.2
Post draw
13.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
55.7
Career best · average
83.0 · 78.0
Class, average · last
80 · 91
Power
79.2 · 6th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$13,473.50

Connections and form

Jockey
Gabriel Saez
Trainer
Michael Maker 2/6
Weight · days off
122 · 35d
Past performances
4 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 24 OctKEENELAND6 Furlongs · DirtDean Dorton Myrtlewood S.380.0Luis Saez120
Sun 28 SepREMINGTON PARK6 1/2 Furlongs · DirtE. L. Gaylord Memorial S.180.0Luis Saez
Sun 7 SepKENTUCKY DOWNS6 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance Optional Claiming574.0Luis Saez120
Mon 28 JulHORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS5 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight165.0Samuel Bermudez120

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

4Have Faithscratched30/1
5River Rise122 lbAxel Concepcion53.87720/1118/1

Probability

Pace

Early
3.3
Middle
3.3
Finish
4.9
Post draw
12.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
53.8
Career best · average
— · 63.0
Class, average · last
77 · 72
Power
53.5 · 10th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 0-0-1
Wins
0.0%
Earnings
$19,268
Per start
$3,211.33

Connections and form

Jockey
Axel Concepcion
Trainer
Glenn Wismer 0/2
Weight · days off
122 · 23d

3yo · Filly

Past performances
2 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Wed 5 NovCHURCHILL DOWNS1 1/16 Miles · DirtMaiden Claiming3530.0Axel Concepcion119
Sat 27 SepCHURCHILL DOWNS1 Mile · DirtMaiden Special Weight6720.0Florent Geroux

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

6A Fine Chardonnay122 lbTyler Gaffalione56.5865/231/10

Probability

Pace

Early
5.9
Middle
6.4
Finish
1.1
Post draw
11.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
56.5
Career best · average
94.0 · 90.0
Class, average · last
86 · 91
Power
88.1 · 2nd in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 2-0-2
Wins
50.0%
Earnings
$502,163
Per start
$100,432.60

Connections and form

Jockey
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer
Ian Wilkes 1/2
Weight · days off
122 · 35d

3yo · Filly

Past performances
2 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 24 OctKEENELAND6 Furlongs · DirtDean Dorton Myrtlewood S.183.0Tyler Gaffalione118
Thu 11 SepCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight1840.0Brian Hernandez, Jr.119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

7On Time Girl122 lbIrad Ortiz, Jr.55.9843/125/8

Probability

Pace

Early
2.1
Middle
1.4
Finish
1.6
Post draw
14.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
55.9
Career best · average
90.0 · 82.0
Class, average · last
84 · 91
Power
84.3 · 5th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$120,350.71

Connections and form

Jockey
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
Brad Cox 28/112
Weight · days off
122 · 35d
Past performances
3 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 24 OctKEENELAND6 Furlongs · DirtDean Dorton Myrtlewood S.280.0Irad Ortiz, Jr.118
Thu 11 SepCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtAllowance186.0Irad Ortiz, Jr.122
Sun 3 AugELLIS PARK6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight171.0Corey Lanerie

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

8Go to Girl122 lbFlavien Prat54.38410/123/2

Probability

Pace

Early
6.4
Middle
4.9
Finish
3.8
Post draw
6.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
54.3
Career best · average
73.0 · 77.0
Class, average · last
84 · 89
Power
73.8 · 8th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$18,063.38

Connections and form

Jockey
Flavien Prat
Trainer
Kenneth McPeek 0/5
Weight · days off
122 · 33d
Past performances
6 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Sun 26 OctCHURCHILL DOWNS1 1/16 Miles · DirtRags to Riches S.375.0Emmanuel Esquivel122
Fri 3 OctKEENELAND1 1/16 Miles · DirtDarley Alcibiades S.4840.0Irad Ortiz, Jr.122
Fri 8 AugELLIS PARK1 Mile · DirtMaiden Special Weight1710.0Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Mon 28 JulELLIS PARK1 Mile · DirtMaiden Special Weightnot runBrian Hernandez, Jr.
Fri 27 JunCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight3710.0Brian Hernandez, Jr.119
Wed 11 JunCHURCHILL DOWNS5 1/2 Furlongs · DirtMaiden Special Weight4760.0Jose Ortiz119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

9Mackinac122 lbLuis Saez58.08712/113

Probability

Pace

Early
4.9
Middle
5.2
Finish
3.7
Post draw
8.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
58.0
Career best · average
— · 79.0
Class, average · last
87 · 93
Power
69.3 · 9th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$44,250

Connections and form

Jockey
Luis Saez
Trainer
George Arnold II 8/44
Weight · days off
122 · 56d
Past performances
4 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 3 OctKEENELAND1 1/16 Miles · TurfJessamine S. Presented by Keeneland Sales10760.0Luis Saez118
Thu 28 AugKENTUCKY DOWNS6 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance1960.0Jose Ortiz118
Wed 30 JulSARATOGA5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfMaiden Special Weight2660.0Luis Saez119
Sat 26 JulELLIS PARK5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfMaiden Special Weightnot runEdgar Morales119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

10I B Flyin122 lbJoel Rosario8615/115/1

Probability

Pace

Early
5.3
Middle
5.5
Finish
1.0
Post draw
8.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
Career best · average
— · 77.0
Class, average · last
86 · 86
Power
75.1 · 7th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
Joel Rosario
Trainer
Steven Asmussen 3/27
Weight · days off
122 · 42d
Past performances
1 prior start, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Fri 17 OctKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfMaiden Special Weight186.0Irad Ortiz, Jr.119

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

9 running · 1 scratched

pari-mutuel · odds are indicative until the gate