CHURCHILL DOWNS · Race 8 · Allowance Optional Claiming

For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Restricted, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Four Races Or Which Have Not Won $30,005 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Restricted, Or State Bred On The Turf In 2022 - 2023 Or Claiming Price $175,000. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of $50,000 Twice On The Turf Since July 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races On The Turf In 2023 Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $175,000 (races Where Entered For $80,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (if Deemed Inadvisable By Management To Run This Race Over The Turf Course, It Will Be Run On The Main Track At Five And A Half Furlongs.).

←Race 8 of 9→

Result

official
HorseWinPlaceShow
16Bad Beat Brian$7.76$3.86$4.10
23Smokin' Jay—$4.90$4.06
31Just Might——$5.22
PoolFinishOnPaid
Exacta6-3—$14.55
Trifecta6-3-1—$31.20
Superfecta——refunded
Super high five——refunded
Allowance Optional Claiming5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Firm · Purse $148,000
HorsePaceSpeedClassEVWinMLLive odds
Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
42: 10-9-8
Wins
23.8%
Earnings
$1,035,607
Per start
$24,657.31

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Filly

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
3: 0-0-0
Wins
0.0%
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Colt

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$24,585.18

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
22: 1-0-0
Wins
4.5%
Earnings
$14,182
Per start
$644.64

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Gelding

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Surveillance——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 0-1-0
Wins
0.0%
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

5yo · Gelding

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Surveillance.

Bound for Nowhere——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Bound for Nowhere.

Just Might——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$118.75

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Just Might.

Just Might——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
17: 1-0-3
Wins
5.9%
Earnings
$24,081
Per start
$1,416.53

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Filly

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Just Might.

Bound for Nowhere——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Gelding

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Bound for Nowhere.

Just Might——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Just Might.

Bad Beat Brian——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$1,256

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Bad Beat Brian.

Just Might——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
not reported

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—

Filly

Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Just Might.

Bad Beat Brian——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$3,122.75

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Bad Beat Brian.

Just Might——————

Probability

Pace

Early
—
Middle
—
Finish
—
Post draw
—

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
—
Career best · average
—
Class, average · last
—
Power
—

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$878.50

Connections and form

Jockey
—
Trainer
—
Weight · days off
—
Past performances

No prior starts recorded for Just Might.

1Just Might121 lbLColby Hernandez57.510810/119/3

Probability

Pace

Early
2.0
Middle
2.1
Finish
3.8
Post draw
11.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
57.5
Career best · average
109.0 · 96.0
Class, average · last
108 · 113
Power
102.8 · 3rd in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
55: 13-12-11
Wins
23.6%
Earnings
$1,281,700
Per start
$23,303.64

Connections and form

Jockey
Colby Hernandez
Trainer
Michelle Lovell 2/25
Weight · days off
121 · 19d

Gelding · L

Past performances
8 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Sun 7 MayHAWTHORNE1 Mile 70 Yards · DirtClaiming5620.0——
Sat 6 MayCHURCHILL DOWNS5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfTwin Spires Turf Sprint S. presented by Cohere Health10820.0Colby Hernandez121
Sat 22 AprKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance31040.0Colby Hernandez118
Sat 18 MarFAIR GROUNDS5 1/2 Furlongs · DirtAllowance Optional Claiming5760.0Colby Hernandez120
Fri 10 FebOAKLAWN PARK1 1/8 Miles · DirtClaiming7600.0——
Sat 7 JanOAKLAWN PARK1 1/16 Miles · DirtClaiming6640.0——
Sat 17 DecOAKLAWN PARK1 1/16 Miles · DirtStarter Allowance5670.0——
Fri 28 OctDELAWARE PARK1 1/16 Miles · DirtStarter Optional Claiming3890.0——

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

2Bound for Nowhere121 lbLJoel Rosario57.41054/511/14

Probability

Pace

Early
3.6
Middle
3.1
Finish
1.5
Post draw
13.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
57.4
Career best · average
106.0 · 101.0
Class, average · last
105 · 103
Power
102.3 · 4th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
not reported
Wins
—
Earnings
not reported
Per start
$53,298.24

Connections and form

Jockey
Joel Rosario
Trainer
Wesley Ward 13/32
Weight · days off
121 · 29d

L

Past performances
8 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Wed 26 AprKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance21030.0Joel Rosario123
Sat 8 OctWOODBINE6 Furlongs · TurfNearctic S.2930.0——
Sat 2 JulWOODBINE6 Furlongs · TurfHighlander S.11000.0Pablo Morales124
Sat 19 MarFAIR GROUNDSAbout 5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING11060.0——
Fri 6 AugSARATOGA5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfSTAKES51090.0——
Sat 5 JunBELMONT PARK6 Furlongs · Inner turfSTAKES3950.0——
Sat 3 AprKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfSTAKES11140.0——
Sat 11 JulKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfSTAKES31130.0——

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

3Smokin' Jay121 lbLTyler Gaffalione57.410810/126/5

Probability

Pace

Early
5.6
Middle
5.9
Finish
4.4
Post draw
9.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
57.4
Career best · average
103.0 · 96.0
Class, average · last
108 · 108
Power
94.2 · 6th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
26: 6-4-2
Wins
23.1%
Earnings
$326,735
Per start
$12,566.73

Connections and form

Jockey
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer
Kelsey Danner 1/2
Weight · days off
121 · 33d

Gelding · L

Past performances
8 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Sat 20 MayPIMLICO5 Furlongs · TurfJim McKay Turf Sprint S. Presented by Guinness—not runTyler Gaffalione120
Sat 22 AprKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance7980.0Tyler Gaffalione120
Sat 4 MarGULFSTREAM PARK5 Furlongs · TurfAllowance Optional Claiming11050.0Tyler Gaffalione122
Tue 2 AugCOLONIAL DOWNS5 1/2 Furlongs · Outer turfAllowance Optional Claiming4870.0——
Mon 18 JulCOLONIAL DOWNS5 1/2 Furlongs · Outer turfVan Clief S.6900.0——
Sat 11 JunBELMONT PARK6 Furlongs · TurfJaipur S.8840.0Junior Alvarado120
Sat 21 MayPIMLICO5 Furlongs · TurfJim McKay Turf Sprint S.21030.0——
Fri 31 DecGULFSTREAM PARKAbout 5 Furlongs · TurfSTAKES31030.0——

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

4Surveillance121 lbLJames Graham56.21075/153/6

Probability

Pace

Early
6.0
Middle
5.6
Finish
3.5
Post draw
9.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
56.2
Career best · average
98.0 · 100.0
Class, average · last
107 · 108
Power
92.3 · 7th in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 1-1-0
Wins
25.0%
Earnings
$1,304,407
Per start
$23,292.98

Connections and form

Jockey
James Graham
Trainer
J. Desormeaux 10/58
Weight · days off
121 · 21d

9yo · Gelding · L

Past performances
8 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Thu 4 MayCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtSt. Matthews Overnight S.396.0James Graham123
Sat 15 AprOAKLAWN PARK6 Furlongs · DirtCount Fleet Sprint H.4104.0James Graham119
Sat 18 FebFAIR GROUNDSAbout 5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfColonel Power S.495.0James Graham—
Sat 21 JanFAIR GROUNDS5 1/2 Furlongs · DirtDuncan F. Kenner S.1101.0——
Mon 26 DecFAIR GROUNDS6 Furlongs · DirtRichard R. Scherer Memorial S.1106.0James Graham124
Thu 24 NovFAIR GROUNDS6 Furlongs · DirtThanksgiving Classic S.1103.0——
Sun 13 NovCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtBet on Sunshine S.596.0James Graham121
Sat 1 OctCHURCHILL DOWNS6 Furlongs · DirtAllowance Optional Claiming298.0——

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

5Pirate Rickscratched—————6/1—
6Bad Beat Brian121 lbLChristopher Emigh56.61084/120/7

Probability

Pace

Early
3.6
Middle
3.5
Finish
2.8
Post draw
8.0%

Speed and class

Recent form, last 4
56.6
Career best · average
114.0 · 101.0
Class, average · last
108 · 113
Power
117.8 · 1st in field

Recent form and career are different scales and do not compare. Power is an input to the model, not a second opinion.

Career

Record
4: 0-0-2
Wins
0.0%
Earnings
$870,243
Per start
$15,267.42

Connections and form

Jockey
Christopher Emigh
Trainer
Brittany Vanden Berg 35/148
Weight · days off
121 · 19d

9yo · Gelding · L

Past performances
8 prior starts, most recent first
DateTrackDistance · surfaceClassFinishSpeedJockeyWt
Sat 6 MayCHURCHILL DOWNS5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfTwin Spires Turf Sprint S. presented by Cohere Health693.0Christopher Emigh121
Sat 8 AprKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfShakertown S.2109.0Christopher Emigh122
Sat 11 MarTURFWAY PARK6 Furlongs · All Weather TrackBig Daddy S.5101.0Christopher Emigh120
Wed 18 JanTURFWAY PARK6 1/2 Furlongs · All Weather TrackAllowance Optional Claiming4100.0——
Fri 16 DecTURFWAY PARK6 1/2 Furlongs · All Weather TrackAllowance Optional Claiming493.0Christopher Emigh120
Sat 8 OctKEENELAND5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfWoodford S. Presented by FanDuel4109.0Christopher Emigh120
Tue 13 SepKENTUCKY DOWNS6 1/2 Furlongs · TurfAllowance Optional Claiming197.0Christopher Emigh122
Sun 7 AugELLIS PARK5 1/2 Furlongs · TurfTwin Spires Turf Sprint S.399.0Christopher Emigh122

Speed shades across the range these runs cover. A figure the source did not record reads not run rather than as a zero.

7Friar Laurencescratched—————4/1—
22 running · 2 scratched

pari-mutuel · odds are indicative until the gate