Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 13, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Butcher Holler 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Not Behavin 4.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Friendly Charlie 5.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Shriner 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 All Rizz 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Lick Skillet 0.80 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tiz a Breakup 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Cupie Cutie 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Shelbi’s Star 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 One More Time Baby 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Eve Eve 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Strummin Mary 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Alessande 20.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Miss Daahen 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Jewel Marie 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Brand Bois 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Boss’ Dialin In 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Burninhunkoflove 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Captivating Boy 6.00 2 4-1
1 1 Jerry’s Eighty 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Mr McGregor 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Peso in My Pocket 5.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Gilmore 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Emily’s Boy 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Wayside Drive 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Chaste One 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Southscape 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Toni’s Inferno 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Reach for the Aces 20.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Blame Me Seriously 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Tensas Camp Road 6.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 American Guy 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Lightning Twirl 5.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Hudson’s Day 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Berndt Marshmallow 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gem of a Storm 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Charles Bodie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Overanalytical 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 All West 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Keys Included 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Over Calendared 20.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Smoothdini 3.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Mr. Faversham 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Path to Success 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Crimson Storm 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 No Map Needed 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Red Zone 3.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 My Southern Girl 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Golden Bonita 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Shehasanattitude 12.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 La Clasica 4.50 4 8-1
8 8 Elwin 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Acceleratedvictory 30.00 5 9-1
6 6 Splotch 30.00 6 11-1
5 5 Ageless Union 6.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Never Walk Alone 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Midnight Bella 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sweet Sassicaia 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Im Singled Up 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Flight Control 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Berlaine 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Start Singing 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 April’s Gem 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Dashyns Dream 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Trouble With Sugar 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Pasta Salad Rhonda 10.00 7.7 14-1
13 13 Bar Tap 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pat Hand Girl 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Rosie’s Angus 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Motel Patel 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ancient World 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 C Mac Da Boss 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Genuine Star 4.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Where Y’at 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Sargent Sully 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Hard Spun to Run 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Munnystruck 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Caribbean Dream 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fast Beach 4.50 1 2-1
11 11 Storm the Streets 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Batter Up 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Crooked Bullet 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Tequila n’ Salt 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Justawalkinthepark 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Mi Compadre 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Serenader 20.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Tyler’s Turn 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bigfoot Sighting 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 No Soy Borracho 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Winning Campaign 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 M L Brody’s Gem 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Diamond Deal 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Saberfight 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Astrology Girl 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Mrs. Necaise 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Real Deal Ryan 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Little Z 5.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Taken It 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Anslie’s Gumdrop 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Time to Close 10.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.