Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 11, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Tiger Moon 0 0-1
3 3 Runnin Munnin 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tiger Moon 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Just Jimmy 5.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Cascade Cruiser 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Dustin the Diamond 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Impeccability 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Josan 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sweet Temperament 0 0-1
Fit and Famous 0 0-1
2 2 Sweet Temperament 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Fit and Famous 12.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Going the Distance 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Jaydensqueenoharts 5.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 A Runnin Afleet 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Rumpus 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Chrome Attack 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Rambert 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lured Away 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Date the Prince 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 High Ceiling 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Ragnow 4.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Somekinda Mischief 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Diamond Eyed Jack 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 First Division 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 House Bourbon 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Wise Verdict 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Ice’m Up Boys 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Star Byfar 20.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Alvarado Cat 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 American Dollars 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Petitfor 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Senator Con 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Unified Report 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Real City Speed 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Passing Judgment 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Bob F. Wright Memorial S.) – Bob F. Wright Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Six String 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Freeburn 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Manama Gold 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Classy Judy G 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Luyv 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Royal O’Haigain 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Hopeitsmyluckyday 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hay Jude 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Lil Muggs 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Big Rasee 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Complex Music 5.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Normandy Coast 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Face the Future 4.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Thrilla 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Indian Cat 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Steady On 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rock’n a Halo 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 King of the Palace 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Unified Dreams 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Gray’s Fable 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Tres Soles 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Smokey Mandate 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Calicoco 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Eff Thirty Five 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Take Me To Church (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Gary P. Palmisano Memorial S.) – Gary P. Palmisano Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Geaux Sugar 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 El Dinero 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 8 Not On Herb 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Lauri’s Wish 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Ranch Badge 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Tdzshininluckystar 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Jack Hammer 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mangum 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Clearly a Test 1.80 1 2-1
10 10 Certified Gem 4.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Dixie Farmer 4.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Jet Rocket 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Accommodate Eva 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Saved by Grace 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Olivia G 20.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Anita’s Vision 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Box of Pictures 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Vale Male 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.