Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 1, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Eglise 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Hall of Fame 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Multitask 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Moonlight 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Lucency 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Overstatement 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Prince of Power 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lil Gin N Class 0 0-1
7 7 Lil Gin N Class 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Creative Quality 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Splash Master 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Cairo Street 4.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Bright Lady Day 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Outrageously 5.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Frango Electrico 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Apollo Rising 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Ministerial 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Bernin Hot 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Stellar Vino 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mikealicious 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 The Thunderer 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Interlock Empire 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Schifty’s Haloid 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Save the Trees 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Booth 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Molly’s Town 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Practically Dark 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 This Is Uscar 5.00 4 8-1
6 6 Hailstorm 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Five o’ Somewhere 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Everloving 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Murphy Girl 4.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Trouble in Love 3.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Foie Gras 10.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Rosary 10.00 9.5 18-1
14 14 Verity 10.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Kissin Cash 8.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Listen and Learn 10.00 11.2 21-1
5 5 Shesadragonlady 15.00 11.3 21-1
15 15 Dare to Fly 20.00 13 25-1
3 3 Warm Days 20.00 14.3 27-1
12 12 B D’s Angel 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rare Ruby 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sunna 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Miss Merci Mae 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Willie Bird 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Searcy 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 J J’s Ranger 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Sound Doctrine 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Forrest City 2.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Great Richie M 4.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 Al Ameeq 5.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 City of Clouds 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Quencio 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Islander 0 0-1
2 2 Islander 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Irina’s Charm 10.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 East Shore 3.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Roselee May 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Viable 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Grand Job 1.60 4.2 8-1
1 1 Saranac Lake 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Foreseen 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pair of Socks 0 0-1
10 10 The Warden 30.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tickled Quist 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Perfect Force 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Free Advice 30.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Burning Glory 2.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Miracle On Central 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Trusted Image 30.00 4.9 9-1
14 14 Down the Islands 30.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Ship Ship Hooray 15.00 5.6 11-1
13 13 Pair of Socks 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 War and Majesty 10.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 White Whale 3.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Master Controller 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Authentic Gallop 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lord Baranof 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Jack’s Promise 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bango 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Angkor 2.00 3 6-1
5 5 Disco Ball 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Tejano Twist 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Chasing Time 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Accretive 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Necker Island 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Coinage 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Nyquick 10.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Hero Status 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 San Siro 12.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Yellow Brick 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Baton Rouge 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Bourbon Resolve 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Baba Voss 15.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Piroli 3.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Winters Lion 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Black Powder 30.00 10.6 20-1
8 8 Grand Aspen 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Cherokee Mile S.) – Cherokee Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rocket Can 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Call Me Fast 15.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Stilleto Boy 15.00 2 4-1
3 3 Injunction 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Scotland 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Brunacini 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Quality Chic 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Frosted Departure 5.00 5 9-1
10 10 Transect 15.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Single Dot Yaht 15.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Three Technique 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Global Sensation 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Keen Cat 4.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Pure Panic 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 W W Crazy 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Eddie M 5.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Ready Pursuit 20.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Ram 12.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Soaring Bird 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ember 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Holiday House 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Huntertown 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Kiki Krazy 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.