Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 29, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Vegas Black Jack 0 0-1
5 5 Wistucky 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Walstib 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Orizzonte 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Anthonian 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Vegas Black Jack 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Paint Baller 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 General Issue (FR) 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ahandfulofcandy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Curl Girl 0 0-1
5 5 Curl Girl 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Catching Heat 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Colonial Rose 4.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tonalite 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Mustang Lady 2.50 5.9 11-1
6 6 Curlin’s Magic 10.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Pink Moon 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Asian Matriarch 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Just Like You 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Corkage Fee 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Motown Mika 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Miss Jeopardy 3.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Little Sister Sue 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Itsablingthing 20.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Mo Sense 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Vulcan 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Kant Beat the Rock 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Metallic Man 5.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Atta Boy Anthony 15.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Metatron’s Muse 20.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Emerald Express 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Bayou Colonel 15.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Iceatude 4.50 4.5 9-1
12 12 Mugsy Malone 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Basscoat 15.00 8 15-1
9 9 Commando Joe 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Appeal Denied 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Riley 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Kuku 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Honeybeebobbie 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Glorious Musings 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 What If 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Chapter and Verse 5.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Spot On Cookie 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Lucky Duck 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Protonica 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Johny’s Fireball 0 0-1
8 8 Johny’s Fireball 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 King Curlin 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Camp Hope 8.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Idratherbeblessed 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Liar’s Poker 30.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Better Bet 3.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Cowboy Justice (GB) 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Clyde’s Got a Gun 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Bakwena 30.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Native Shaman 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Lincoln Highway 30.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Rock’n a Halo 20.00 7.4 14-1
16 16 Wind Twist 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Quadra Island 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Baba Voss 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Saint in the City 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Intermittent Fast 0 0-1
1 1 Marmalade Skye 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Intermittent Fast 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Divine Gal 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Mila Junes 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 The Big Calhouna 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Progeny 2.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Balladry 5.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Just Hangin On 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mister Moscato 0 0-1
1 1 Patch O’Brien 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Twirling Troillet 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Mister Moscato 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Cowboy Image 20.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Thanks Frank 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Free Rambling Man 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Only Frank Knows 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Roundball Rock 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bachman 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Unworkable 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sultry Lass 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Reagan’s Flame 5.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Amber Cascade 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Cat’s Cave 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Starlight Love 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Ichiban 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Three Coats 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Mrs. Revere S.) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kehoe Beach 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Simply in Front 15.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Buchu 5.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Pin Up Betty 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Pounce 20.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 Poolside With Slim (IRE) 6.00 2.8 5-1
15 15 Sanctify 30.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Minoushka (GB) 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Dancing N Dixie 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Pharoah’s Wine 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Chilled 30.00 7.4 14-1
14 14 Breezing Along 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Maxisuperfly 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Neon Icon 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare) – Clark S. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Red Route One 0 0-1
Rattle N Roll 0 0-1
Rattle N Roll 0 0-1
5 5 Most Wanted 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Crupi 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Rattle N Roll 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Hit Show 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Red Route One 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Cooke Creek 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Grand Aspen 20.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Uno Mas Bourbon 20.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Piroli 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bolzy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bermuda Blitz 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Akinmusire 3.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Steppe 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Stay Frosty 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Le Chiffre 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Messi the Great 15.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Skynet 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Gunner Glacken 8.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Unionista 12.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Big Lambros 12.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Fully Volatile 10.00 9 17-1
11 11 Special Caliber 20.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 My King Air 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.