Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Life 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Harvard 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Cashmeup 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Vittorio 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Summer in Aiken 15.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Chryso Alogo 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Talkscheap 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Trafalgar Shore 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cactus Flower 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Wildcatjustice 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Jump Into the Fire 2.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Yolo Calls 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Slam Diego 2.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Inner Harbor 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Baby Gundin 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Man of Mischief 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Storm the Streets 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Morally 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Winter Creek 5.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Golden Ice 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Haunted Flame 4.00 6 11-1
2 2 Stunning Bruno 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Words of Fortune 8.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Mr Lee 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Financial Whiz 30.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Adios Kid 20.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Remaining Nameless 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mister Baby 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Miss Hebrides 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Autumn Chill 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Catching Heat 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Cararra 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Bah Humbug 6.00 5 9-1
6 6 Standoutsensation 3.50 5.4 10-1
2 2 Up the Creek 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sombra Dorada 0 0-1
1 1 Sombra Dorada 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Sharper Gal 1.80 2.6 5-1
2 2 Teardrop Tiara 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Miss Escapade 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Sarissa 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Royal Blood 15.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Elliott Moon 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Fancy Prance 30.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Honeycomb 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gilded Craken 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Count Dracula 10.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 General Mathis 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Kissalot 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Beyond Best 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Midnight Channel 30.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Huge Bigly 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 The Prince’s Spur 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Winters Lion 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Multiplication 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Carolina Smokeshow 4.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Parking Lot Pours 12.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Fearless Lady 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Ez Tree Ates 3.00 4 8-1
9 9 Dimensionality 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Outrage 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Anonima 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Tiger Division 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Scrupulous 0 0-1
1 1 Bourbon Serengeti 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Bella Haze 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 These Apples 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Scrupulous 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Gourmet 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Romantic Dancer 3.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Hattie Bloom 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Beach Bunny 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Zapple 30.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Rubia 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Navy Seal (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 My Boy Tony 3.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Royal Sandrin 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Thomas Aquinas 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Summer in Adriane 10.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Lips Say Bliss 10.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Bourbon Boss 10.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Always Above 10.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sea Singer (IRE) 10.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Telescopic 8.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Quokka 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 D Day Reunion 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Laughnowcrylater 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fort Thomas 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Legacy Defined 0 0-1
9 9 Gate to Paradise 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Upon a Star 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Lord I Wonder 3.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Kiss Me Again 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Here’syourtrouble 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Cathcart 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Legacy Defined 30.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Lady Go Go 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Lunar Seas 30.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Catchphrase 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.