Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 17, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Carcar Express 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Jack’s Promise 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Waco 5.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Thunderhawk 2.00 2 4-1
2 2 State Park 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 The Chalk 3.50 5.7 11-1
7 7 Scoville 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sparkle of Hope 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Tearduc 2.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Commanders Palace 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Bobbie Sox 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Urban Cowgirl 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Freedom Attack 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Evie’s Encore 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Golden Symphony 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Prince of Power 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Box Office 2.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Know Who You Are 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Brewing 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Stradivarian 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Neon Bordeaux 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 What Say Thee 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Taking Candy 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Flashiest 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Call Me Fast 1.60 3.9 7-1
1 1 Big Dreaming 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 El Kabong 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Public Sector (GB) 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Ah Jeez 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Judy’s Flyer 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Blushing Kam 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Kinzie Queen 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Spunderella 12.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Tarragon 10.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Cat Pays the Toll 2.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Combattante 15.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Lob 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Magnitude 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Enterdadragon 10.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Firmus 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Analog Jones 2.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Uncle Jim 1.60 4.2 8-1
5 5 Iron Sharpens Iron 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 California Burrito 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tickin Time Blonde 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Magical Day 6.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Enticing Beauty 15.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Wicked Eyes 20.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Catana 2.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Canterbury Lane 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Nancy Lynn 10.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Modo 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Violet Irene 12.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Ginger N Speightsy 15.00 9.8 19-1
11 11 Her Laugh 12.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kavod 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Five o’ Somewhere 20.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Cyclone Mischief 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Gold Luck 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Osbourne 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Swirvin 5.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Gilcrease 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 River Ridge 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Gamblers Tail 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Lobo Salvaje 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Quarrymen 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Noble Gentleman 20.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Artwell 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Air Cav 10.00 5 9-1
6 6 Tropandhagen 8.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Midnight Stormy 8.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Tiz Marks Spirit 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.