Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 15, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Quiet Confidence 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Endless Glow 2.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Queen Clancy 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lock It Up 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Moringa 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Skelly Road 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fast Solution 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Zaphod 3.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Ahumado 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Shako 6.00 6 11-1
1 1 Moral Dilemma 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Splash Master 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tammy’s Cruiser 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Cairo Street 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Camp Akeela 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Candy Craze 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Curlin’s Magic 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Edge of Town 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Smart With Heart 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Stylish Sue 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 She’s Lookin Lucky 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Watch This Birdie 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Callie’s Grit 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Take a Stand 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Join the Dance 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Selenaia (IRE) 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Two Eagles River 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Proprietary Trade 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Black Powder 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Powerful 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Pancake House 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 First Player 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 How’s Ur Attitude 12.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Refuah 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Caribbean Wind 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Desert Adventure 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Stay Classy 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Truthorconsequence 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Diva Beach 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Rational Theory 8.00 5.4 10-1
16 16 Pink Dini 10.00 7.2 14-1
15 15 Wicked Eyes 12.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Easily Sidetracked 12.00 8.9 17-1
12 12 Beaded 12.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Splendid 15.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Reagan Alice 15.00 11.6 22-1
4 4 Sweet Bebsi 15.00 11.6 22-1
2 2 Red Zone 15.00 11.6 22-1
14 14 B D’s Angel 20.00 16 30-1
10 10 Chandon 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Amarth 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Eunomia 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Stable Currency 3.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Quinn’s Promise 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Bless the Broken 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Mizmalice 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Run Camila Run 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mischievous Rogue 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Outadore 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Urban Legend 4.00 2.1 4-1
11 11 Masseto (GB) 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 B D Valeski 8.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Bad Beat Brian 10.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Bushido 10.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Finster 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Gilded Ruler 12.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Foxtrotanna 12.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Portofino 15.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Big Hat Willie 15.00 10.3 19-1
14 14 High Front 20.00 14 26-1
13 13 Fast Jack 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dutch Mills 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Uncle Berley 3.50 1.2 2-1
12 12 Improbable Journey 4.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Iceatude 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Bye Bye Liam 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Bettering 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Sergeant Gump 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Chitwood 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 City of Clouds 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Huntertown 20.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Shakin Loose 20.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 South Decatur 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.