Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 15, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Fast Solution 0 0-1
2 2 Moringa 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Quiet Confidence 1.40 1.6 3-1
4 4 Queen Clancy 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Endless Glow 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Lock It Up 5.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Skelly Road 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Zaphod 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Ahumado 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Fast Solution 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Moral Dilemma 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Shako 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Tammy’s Cruiser 0 0-1
8 8 Cairo Street 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Curlin’s Magic 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Splash Master 3.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Camp Akeela 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Candy Craze 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Tammy’s Cruiser 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Edge of Town 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Smart With Heart 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Take a Stand 0 0-1
5 5 Stylish Sue 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Callie’s Grit 4.00 2 4-1
4 4 Watch This Birdie 3.50 2 4-1
2 2 She’s Lookin Lucky 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Join the Dance 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Selenaia (IRE) 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Take a Stand 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Powerful 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Proprietary Trade 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Two Eagles River 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 How’s Ur Attitude 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Black Powder 3.50 5 9-1
5 5 Pancake House 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Refuah 15.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 First Player 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pancake House 0 0-1
6 6 Caribbean Wind 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Rational Theory 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Truthorconsequence 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Reagan Alice 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Desert Adventure 4.50 7.6 14-1
1 1 Stay Classy 5.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 Splendid 15.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Sweet Bebsi 15.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Diva Beach 6.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Easily Sidetracked 12.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Beaded 12.00 10.5 20-1
10 10 Chandon 20.00 13.1 25-1
14 14 B D’s Angel 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Wicked Eyes 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Pink Dini 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Red Zone 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stable Currency 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Quinn’s Promise 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Bless the Broken 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Amarth 2.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Mizmalice 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Eunomia 2.50 5.6 11-1
5 5 Run Camila Run 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Outadore 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Mischievous Rogue 2.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Urban Legend 4.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Masseto (GB) 4.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Gilded Ruler 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 B D Valeski 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Bad Beat Brian 10.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Foxtrotanna 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Bushido 10.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Portofino 15.00 8.2 15-1
14 14 High Front 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fast Jack 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Big Hat Willie 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Finster 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bye Bye Liam 10.00 1 2-1
12 12 Improbable Journey 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Uncle Berley 3.50 2.6 5-1
11 11 City of Clouds 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Iceatude 10.00 5 9-1
10 10 Huntertown 20.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Chitwood 12.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Sergeant Gump 10.00 7 13-1
1 1 Shakin Loose 20.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Bettering 10.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 South Decatur 30.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Dutch Mills 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.