Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 14, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Come to Papa 0 0-1
4 4 Come to Papa 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Ultimate Strike 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Awol 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Hope Joe’s Right 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Grand Kingdom 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Wise Counsel 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Elko County 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tennessee Lamb 1.40 2.2 4-1
2 2 Baby Avery 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Magnificent Rags 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Churning Berni 10.00 4 7-1
1 1 Greer’s Gold 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Speed Institute 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Appeal Denied 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Kant Beat the Rock 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Monterey Peninsula 10.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Global Stage 10.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Woodythebidspotter 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Oncoming Train 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Ready Pursuit 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Metallic Man 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sharp Speed 0 0-1
Baytown Boujee 0 0-1
5 5 Blue Dazzler 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 High Summer 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Sweet Star 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Baytown Boujee 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Sharp Speed 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Romany Road 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Reecho 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Talent Show 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dual Income 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Very Bold 3.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Razorcat 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Redacted 5.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Honor Bo 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Free Advice 12.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Invisible 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Messi the Great 20.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Skynet 15.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Baby Max 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sock It to Me 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Equus 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Bette Davis 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 I Had That One Too 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Storm Bay 4.50 4 8-1
5 5 Ladan 4.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Rosario’s Prayer 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 El Prestigio 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Outofpi 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Spiced Up 6.00 7 13-1
6 6 Donut God 8.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Motel Patel 10.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Miracle On Central 12.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Graydaria 12.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Pair of Socks 6.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Gettinby 15.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Bon Temps 15.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Tip Toe Joe 30.00 10.2 19-1
1 1 Dontworryboutnothn 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Top Gun Girl 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Makeup 2.50 5 9-1
16 16 Nay V Belle 4.00 6.2 12-1
17 17 Ervadean 3.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Connie K 20.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Chandana 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Current Climate 10.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Jill Jitterbug 15.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Mucho Macho Girl 15.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Yamile’s 20.00 10.3 20-1
8 8 Stella Teresa 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Louder Than Words 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bedazzle ‘Em 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Miss Enchanted 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Krispy Rice 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Flatter Me Silly 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Samay (PER) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Grand Morning 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Desperate Proposal 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 G. Erik 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Shotgun 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Spurious 4.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Cavanal 10.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Itsinmyblood 4.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Kicking Clear 6.00 6 11-1
10 10 Baltoro 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Mor Success 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.