Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 10, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sixwillberich 0 0-1
6 6 Sixwillberich 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mad Adam 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Yes Point 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Quencio 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Hey Boss 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Criminal Defense 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Star Nation 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Army Hero 0 0-1
2 2 Seven Taylors 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sardis 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Lebombo 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Sir Exton 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Skyler 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Neon Nights 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Army Hero 2.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Atlantic Cat 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Miss Tappy Tone 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Corkage Fee 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Mo Sense 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Rock Star Doctor 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Late Nite Lizzie 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 She’s Jersey Tuff 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Baytown Kitty Cat 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Jersey Gold 30.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Lady June 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Humbled 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Precious Medley 12.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Just Ruthless 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Are You a Spy 8.00 3 6-1
13 13 My Angel Does 20.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Frosted Kisses 10.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Cocktail Kisses 12.00 10.9 21-1
16 16 Something Stronger 12.00 11.6 22-1
6 6 Eyes On Italy 12.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Viva Glam 10.00 12 23-1
5 5 Princess Em Too 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bee Bluff 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Les Is Best 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Golden Sunshine 1.20 SCRATCH
12 12 Expecto Patronum 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lush Lips (GB) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nom de Plume 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Miss Arlington 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Fee 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Asset Purchase 20.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Stellar Lily 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Be Like Water 10.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Lure’em In 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Happy Am I 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 J J’s Ranger 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lucchesi 15.00 3 6-1
8 8 Levee Was Dry 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Adrift 20.00 4 7-1
10 10 Phenomenal Dream 20.00 4 8-1
3 3 Good News Rocket 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Afleet Vintage 15.00 8.2 15-1
11 11 Bisate 3.50 8.2 16-1
5 5 Odorico 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Redeposit 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Goldentown 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bee Plus 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Red Hot Rod 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sound Doctrine 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Flotation Station 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Express Cruiser 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Dewy’s Beast 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Code Omaha 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Hunter John 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Chiseler 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bettering 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Satin Blue 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Penny’s Smile 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Don’t Say It 4.50 2.3 4-1
13 13 Get Twisted 10.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Girls Weekend 5.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Plum Tricky 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Dot 30.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Uno Le 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Hey Olivia 20.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Dream On Stormy 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Zen Moment 8.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Cairo Dream 8.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 The Great Maybe 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Miyako 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 La La Rose 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Kick a Rhyme (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Eglise 0 0-1
13 13 Yellow Brick 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Eglise 3.50 4 8-1
9 9 Cornishman 4.50 4.8 9-1
10 10 Over and Ollie 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 King Russell 15.00 5.6 11-1
15 15 Django 12.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Daily Grind 30.00 10.5 20-1
6 6 Midnight Raid 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Moonlight 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 D’oro Unbridled 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hall of Fame 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Winston Wolf 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sun Thunder 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Multitask 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Chay’s Tornado 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kissalot 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Stellar Vino 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Copper Echo 4.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Overstatement 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Parkway 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Game Keeper 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Mo Rum 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Star Topper 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Coach Campbell 30.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 High Enough 30.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Gorilla Trek 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.