Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 9, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mo for Us 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Vino Frizzante 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Roselee May 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 My Favorite Girl 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Tapit Quick 3.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Pour a Little More 10.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Dancing Princess 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Queenoftheuniverse 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rose Palace 0 0-1
6 6 Summer of Mischief 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sequin Lady 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Rose Palace 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Tiffany Twist 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Altered Shot 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Awesome Annmarie 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Forever Home 6.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Abitibi 12.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Ruvies in Time 30.00 8 15-1
1 1 Rosie’s Halo 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Instant Replay 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Authentic Style 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Knock Knock Joke 20.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Sir Gallivant 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Capo Luca 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Otter Mischief 30.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Gallo de Fuego 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lured Away 12.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Mintastic 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Vino Dominus 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Serketas 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shortstop 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Summonyourcourage 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Hangin in There 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Lou’s Legacy 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Added Mischief 12.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Geno’s Myth 5.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Teen Idol 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Captain Fancy 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Don’t Backdown 10.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Stiglets 15.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Maui Strong 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Final Gambit 3.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Plensa 4.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Zap d’Etat 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Hamlin 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Major Mischief 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Lebowski 10.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Grim Reaper 15.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Kye 20.00 11.5 22-1
14 14 Lemon Sohn 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Unlock Your Heart 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ornato 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Halter Boy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Vinobello 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Colormecairo 8.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Mustang Lady 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Yes to Champagne 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Eyes of Gold 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Meet in Secret 30.00 7 13-1
10 10 Extremely Gruntled 30.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Candy Doll 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Leametatrainer 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Cararra 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Tapit Shoes 0 0-1
1 1 Parchment Party 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Kinetic 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Baton Rouge 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Mackman 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Creative Minister 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Single Dot Yaht 20.00 5.7 11-1
13 13 Dai Vernon 5.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Game Warden 6.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 Bourbon Resolve 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 San Siro 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Hayes Strike 30.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Tapit Shoes 30.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Recker Point 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Dream Supreme S.) – Dream Supreme S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mystic Pleasure 0 0-1
3 3 Spirit Wind 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Mystic Pleasure 2.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Accomplished Girl 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Upper Case 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Into Love 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Awesome Treat 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Lure’em In 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Miss Arlington 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Girls Weekend 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Track Phantom 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Rocket Can 4.50 3.4 6-1
12 12 Gulfstream Way 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Bromley 12.00 5.8 11-1
16 16 Blue Devil 8.00 5.9 11-1
13 13 Accretive 8.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Arro Smash 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Horace Mann 6.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Lofty Adjudicator 30.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Full Screen 15.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Condemn 30.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Osbourne 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Gilcrease 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Machine Gun Man 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Big Hat Willie 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 World Record 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (River City S.) – River City S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Emmanuel 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Reckoning Force 3.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Cash Equity (FR) 2.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Gigante 12.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Masteroffoxhounds 12.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Battle of Normandy 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Hades 15.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Public Sector (GB) 15.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Wonderful Justice (GB) 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Harlan Estate 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lil Gin N Class 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Thestral 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Miss Peabody 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Antique Silver 5.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Mila Junes 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Bourbon Breeze 15.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Birdie Rose 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Little Sister Sue 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Idalou 30.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Jackie’s Love 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bella Cruella 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Just Like You 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.