Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 8, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Miranda’s Rocky 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mercy Warren 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Midnight Tango 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 A New Peace 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Honey Run 12.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Lady Mercedes 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Coinmaker 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 It’sfiftyshadetime 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miyagi 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Trust Issues 2.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Evan On Earth 3.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Gypsy Mischief 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Braven 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Timetomakemischief 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 What a Blessing 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Deeply Hidden 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Haunted Flame 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Anytime Anywhere 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Remaining Nameless 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Tuscaloosa 3.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Rulookinforrayray 15.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Grand Academic 10.00 10.3 19-1
7 7 Wonderful News 20.00 10.5 20-1
14 14 Stay Frosty 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Pray for the Bear 30.00 11.1 21-1
5 5 Shriner 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Miracle On Central 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Blakely’s Boy 30.00 13.6 26-1
2 2 Golden Goal 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Chasin’ Chaffin 20.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Rock Solo 0 0-1
5 5 Lumber Legacy 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Track Ranger 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Sunny Magic 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Lord Baranof 2.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Consecrated 12.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Tkac 3.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Baytown Beatle 15.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Rock Solo 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Huevos d’Oro 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Vamos Carlitos 0 0-1
2 2 Giocoso 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Boy Boy 20.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Look to the Cross 15.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Without Caution 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Papiamento 12.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Lucky Mischief 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Mesero 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Stashu 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Royal Bro 10.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Front End 30.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Blameitonbourbon 15.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Vamos Carlitos 10.00 10.9 21-1
15 15 The Count Is On 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ashley’s Archer 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Enterdadragon 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mission Improbable 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Formaggio 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Going to the Sun 15.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Paris Lily 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Centimorgan 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Mimi’s Grace 5.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Risky Wave 10.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Jewel Box 12.00 6 11-1
9 9 Drop the Hammer 5.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Fallon 30.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 Somerville 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Miss Artois 12.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Foie Gras 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Peignoir 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Enclosure 2.50 4 8-1
1 1 Sultry Lass 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Under the Palms 3.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Cat’s Cave 10.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Boss Lady Bailey 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Amber Cascade 3.50 7.3 14-1
7 7 Miles of Smiles 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Committee of One 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Jefe de Obra (CHI) 8.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Demolition Duke 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Glacial Power 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Surf City 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Grande Tortugon (CHI) 30.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 One Giant Leap 15.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Polster 30.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Alder 12.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Upside Potential 12.00 8 15-1
9 9 Uncle William 15.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Aleman 30.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Pressure 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Cigarette Boat 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lead Foot 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Colorado Cruiser 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Walstib 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 General Issue (FR) 8.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Badge of War 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Kosher Capone 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Garden Leave 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Kenmore West 20.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Velociraptor 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Paint Baller 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Anthonian 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.