Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 31, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Beach Bunny 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Starcourt 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Avalon Girl 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Material Witness 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Inventing Anna 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mink Stole 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Four the Girls 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Morally 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Noble Reign 12.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Vsop 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Financial Whiz 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Down the Islands 2.50 5.9 11-1
2 2 Best Dressed Man 15.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 American City 3.50 7.1 13-1
8 8 Begforforgiveness 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Super Smooth 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Momentum Files 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Top Gun Rocket 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 I’m McDreamy 3.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Hop Sing 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Rowdy Riot 12.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Into Pleasure 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Lord Narcisse 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Partyvicious 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 House of Magic 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 End of Innocence 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Antique Silver 5.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Gourmet 2.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Trotter 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Edge of Town 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Sister Ella 12.00 8 15-1
2 2 Fancy Fascinator 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Raging 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Protege 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 River Ridge 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Jammin Justice 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Professor Higgins 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Rocketeightyeight 6.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Coach Campbell 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Readier 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mr McGregor 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Triple Trea 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Cruisin and Boozin 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 El Magnifico 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 It’s My Life 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Big Salt Lick 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Nyquist Frequency 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Tour Player 2.50 4 8-1
4 4 Good Lord 4.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Magnificent Rags 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Mount Kisco 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Padiddle 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Our Keepsake 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Huntress for Hire 2.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Brunch Punch 1.60 1.3 2-1
6 6 Undercover 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Je Suis Rapide 12.00 5 10-1
3 3 Candy Lover 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Floored 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Movin’ On Up 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Hidden Class 20.00 1 2-1
8 8 School Dance 15.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 Dreaming of Mo 2.50 1.5 3-1
9 9 Sanctify 15.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Embrace Me 30.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Queen Leca (URU) 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Infinite Diamond 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Amber Cascade 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Malleymoo 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Breezing Along 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Dazzlin’ Dictator 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hollywood Ending 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Metalhead 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Bourbon’s Fault 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Dynamis 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Mikealicious 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Count Dracula 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Redemption Time 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Gamblers Tail 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Contemplation 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mandatory Meeting 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 La Bukana 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mor Luck 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Miss Tifeye 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Dinahs Girl 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Ranch Life 20.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Joyful Pursuit 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Lotta Lissa 12.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Free Passage 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Shanett 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Max’s Redemption 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.