Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cawkab 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bernin Hot 1.60 1.6 3-1
2 2 Harleezy 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 River in Egypt 5.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Seas of Normandy 3.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Drip d’Oro 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Crooked Bullet 0 0-1
6 6 Jujubee 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Crooked Bullet 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Asleep At Eight 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 All the Luck 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Coming in Hot 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Altobelli 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Pakula 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Mackadoo 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Halina’s Forte 0 0-1
5 5 Youalmosthadme 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Moonlit Lady 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Halina’s Forte 2.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Hush It Honey 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Blue Squall 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Legadema 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fun to Run 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Cruz Chica 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Lovebug 4.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Scarlet Red Sky 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 We Hear You 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Two Timer 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Mary Loves Louie 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Judy’s Flyer 6.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Huixtla 8.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Divineintervention 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Global Queen 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Spurrier 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bye Bye Liam 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Hoppin John 15.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Stop the Spread 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Baladine 20.00 5 9-1
2 2 Rockstar Red 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Bettering 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Extra Halo 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Call of Honor 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Tempted Mission 15.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Cox Canyon 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Liam the Brave 6.00 4 7-1
4 4 Coyote Road 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Metatron’s Muse 10.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Sant’ Antimo 15.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 El Franco 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Mr. Peterkin 12.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Sir Ollie 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hemp Heaven 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Happy Talk 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Sonhador 2.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Islander 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Rainbow Glow 12.00 4 8-1
6 6 Barbanera 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Thanksgiving 8.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Shore War 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Time for Magic 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Global Stage 20.00 1 2-1
10 10 I Got No Munny 10.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Love the Nest 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Zoombie 6.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Briterdayzahead 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Chryso Alogo 30.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Santa Cruiser 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Kattath 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Vulcan 15.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Tilted Towers 4.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Knicks Story 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Ready Pursuit 30.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Kant Beat the Rock 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fan the Fire 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Attache 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Harrodsburg 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Miracle Worker 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Justifreak 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Gold Sweep 20.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 House United 15.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Thoughtthatcounts 8.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Notah 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Goldbrick 20.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Linebacker 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Senior Officer 2.50 7 13-1
13 13 Big Hammer 30.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Princip 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Come to Papa 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Mo Hope 8.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Rocket Night 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Na Pali Joe 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Macho Villa 15.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Vincita 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Wicked Melody 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Thezelenskyyfactor 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Kosher Capone 10.00 7 13-1
10 10 Moving to Kentucky 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.