Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 27, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Vino Toxica 0 0-1
4 4 Queen in the Deck 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Flash Wear 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Multiplication 10.00 2 4-1
5 5 Ez Tree Ates 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Carolina Smokeshow 10.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Parking Lot Pours 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 C. C. Foxii 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Vino Toxica 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Split Success 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Book’em 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Kentucky Smokeshow 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Rosato 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Equal Success 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Broadway Lights 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Rocio 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Benevolence 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Bisa 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Mascara 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Coalmoon 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Landing Craft 4.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Reb 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Frosty Beer 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Cutlass King 8.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Moral 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Brotha Keny 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Steelin Bases 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Bourbonator 30.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 La Houligan 15.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Market Watch 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Flying Mohawk 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Date the Prince 10.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 High Limit 20.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Sergeant Capps 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Swirling Eights 10.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Dream Scheme 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 High Ceiling 15.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Pnutbutter Whiskey 30.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Sand Cast 30.00 4.9 9-1
13 13 Deputy A. P. 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Tequila n’ Salt 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Dr. Niko 10.00 11.5 22-1
15 15 War and Majesty 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Stonington 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Anegada 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Culture War 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 California Sunset 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Going Steady 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Girl Math 1.60 3.1 6-1
3 3 Faith 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Lady Liberty 5.00 4 8-1
7 7 Queen Jubilee 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 McKinzie’s Glory 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Liberation Day 30.00 6 11-1
9 9 Golden Gamble 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bottomless Mimosa 15.00 1 2-1
2 2 Murphy Girl 3.50 1.1 2-1
10 10 First Class Lady 5.00 2.5 5-1
12 12 Spring Dancer 4.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Trading Secrets 30.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Purple and Gold 5.00 4 7-1
5 5 Banking Silver 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Sweet Note 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Northern Voyage 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Costa Amalfitana 30.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Loulou B 20.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Justtakethecannoli 12.00 10 19-1
8 8 Basilea 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Everloving 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Pride’s Prince 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Zat’s the One 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Lil Muggs 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 I Got Game 3.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Confront 4.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Restless Renegade 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Jac Fourteen 12.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Captain Cook 10.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Serendibite 20.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Calling On Heaven 12.00 9.8 19-1
8 8 Dreaminblue 12.00 10.8 20-1
5 5 Captains Choice 30.00 10.9 21-1
14 14 Kalahari Dreams 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Can’t Deny It 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Poppa Echo 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Galantini 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Poema 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Nile Valley 12.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Lotus Petal 6.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 One Happy Island 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Dreaming of Lilies 15.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Bella Alessia 10.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Jeweled City 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Fortunate 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Good Reason 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Tavria 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Wayzata 15.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Avery’s Dream 10.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Frosted Kisses 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Princess Em Too 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Jewish Mother 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Are You a Spy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Rags To Riches S.) – Rags To Riches S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sherbini 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Adeera 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Good Cheer 1.20 3 6-1
5 5 Mechaya 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Claire’s Charm 2.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Lady Orient 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Alyeska 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 My Lil Punky 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Street Sense S.) – Street Sense S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dapper Moon 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Sovereignty 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Sandman 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Tiztastic 3.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Forged Steel 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Bracket Buster 15.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Comes a Time 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Reach for the Rose 20.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Baby Boat 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Big Much 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bisou 0 0-1
3 3 Limited Edition 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Render Judgment 5.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 American Promise 8.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Shogun 6.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 Buzz Rocket 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Hired Gun 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Street Mo 30.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Seattle Road 20.00 5 9-1
1 1 Bisou 3.50 5.2 10-1
11 11 Last Chance Luis 10.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Mogordy 20.00 6.6 12-1
13 13 Tremendously 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Abbi Fede 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.