Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Good Like Magic 1.00 1 2-1
5 5 Stingy 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Pico d’Oro 4.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Hoppin John 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Huntertown 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Supremely 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Arthur 10.00 7 13-1
7 7 South Decatur 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Deeply Hidden 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Morally 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Il Marchesse 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 G. Erik 4.50 5.9 11-1
3 3 Greatdayforhockey 3.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Lumber Legacy 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Mr Lee 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Consecrated 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Just Like You 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Three Polks 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Goddess of War 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Sister Ella 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Riviere 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Lil Temptation 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Business as Usual 30.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Valhalla Vixen 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Royal Blood 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Smart With Heart 20.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Devil of Paradis 10.00 10.1 19-1
13 13 Sarissa 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Antique Silver 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Vegas Love 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Sombra Dorada 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sassy Walker 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Up On the Edge 3.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Scrupulous 15.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Despo’s Dream 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Krickle 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 The Big Calhouna 3.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Pat’schromecompass 6.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Animal Fries 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Moon Spun 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Sweet Gal of Mine 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Harbor Springs 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 La Foret 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Beets 8.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 May May Strong 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Penny’s Smile 4.50 7.5 14-1
3 3 Arch Street 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Foolish 20.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Bella Haze 30.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 Caberneigh 30.00 10.5 20-1
15 15 The Great Maybe 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Plum Tricky 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hey Olivia 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Royal Slipper 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cairo Dream 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Yellow Brick 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Lips Say Bliss 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Generous Tipper 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Footprint 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Moonlight 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Bright Leaf 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Think Big 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 D’oro Unbridled 6.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Luna Tap 20.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Django 5.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Better Bet 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Idratherbeblessed 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Six Minus 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Goldeneye 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Wind Twist 30.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Mendelssohns March 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Event Detail 15.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Cyber Ninja 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Fortune Seller 20.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Greystone 8.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Righthere Rightnow 20.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 The Prince’s Spur 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 King Curlin 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Active Duty 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Remarkable Mo 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Gotta Have Dreams 10.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Whiskey Or Wine 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Rocket Night 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Indy Charge 4.50 5.6 10-1
9 9 Ultimate Strike 10.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Uncle Tuffy 20.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Dancing Noah 30.00 9 17-1
4 4 Scuba 20.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Commander’s Coin 30.00 10.5 20-1
8 8 Kalahari King 20.00 10.6 20-1
13 13 Vincita 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.