Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 28, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rocketeightyeight 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Gun Barrel 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Kistler 5.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Sesame Streek 5.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Lucchesi 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Papa Alden 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Stormin Love 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Uncle Tuffy 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Getoutyourwallet 10.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Skyler 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cactus Flower 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Tell Me When 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 My My Munny 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Ghostly Night 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Yolo Calls 5.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Lil Town Sis 4.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Honey Run 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Abadin 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Flotation Station 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 El Queso Grande 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Tagliatelle 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Mumayaz 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Hunter John 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Wake Surf 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Ravens Dream 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Mischievous Time 3.50 3.9 7-1
10 10 Atlal 4.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Terrapin Station 5.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Crisis Manager 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Vermelho 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Swirling Eights 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Street Mo 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lil Muggs 12.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Serketas 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 D Bigalow 15.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Midnite in Finley 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Champlin 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Sweet Cherry Pie 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Osbourne 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Gulfport 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Love the Nest 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Gilcrease 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Boutwell Time 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Ghosttapper 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Mad About Marie 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Anna’s Promise 4.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 My Shot 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Keepthepartygoing 12.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Reecho 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Miss Que Sera 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Silver Flame 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Western Woman 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Preposition 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Code of Justice 4.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Tswalu 3.50 4.9 9-1
13 13 Edifice 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Generative 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Grim Reaper 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Castle Run 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 McDude 20.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Captain Cook 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Triple Up 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Framework 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Cornhuskerchris 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Floating Smokey 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Ack Ack S.) – Ack Ack S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cagliostro 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tumbarumba 6.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Three Technique 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Stage Raider 15.00 3 6-1
6 6 Big Blue Line 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Saudi Crown 0.80 SCRATCH
4 4 Mufasa (CHI) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hearts United 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Adeera 2.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Good Cheer 1.40 2.3 4-1
1 1 La Marinera 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Talksalot 15.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Chattanooga Crew 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Total Heart 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Lukas Classic S.) – Lukas Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Stilleto Boy 0 0-1
2 2 Rattle N Roll 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Disarm 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Warrior Johny 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Hit Show 2.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Cooke Creek 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Stilleto Boy 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Happy American 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Bolzy 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bourbon Boss 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Mischievous M 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Velociraptor 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Livehappy 12.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Firefight 10.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Kenmore West 12.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Remi’s Moon 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Kosher Capone 15.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Nightnthequarter 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Walstib 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 General Issue (FR) 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.