Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 28, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Hands of Time 0 0-1
5 5 Thunder Roll 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Hands of Time 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Sounds Like a Plan 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Aviator Gui 3.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Cyclone State 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Midnight Boss 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dragoneer 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bolt to Run 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Battle Drum (FR) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Ennis Town 4.50 1 2-1
6 5 Damage 15.00 3 6-1
8 8 Chris’s Revenge 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 10 Man of Mischief 2.00 3.4 6-1
10 11 Ready Set Twirl 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Western Wolf 12.00 6.1 11-1
3 2 Tino in Toga 20.00 8.5 16-1
4 3 Shoot the Nickel 6.00 8.9 17-1
1A 9 Valid Connection 12.00 10.1 19-1
11 12 Monomoys Partner 20.00 10.2 19-1
1 7 Wrap and Send 12.00 10.3 19-1
7 6 America’s Honor 8.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 10 Street Jam 1.80 1 2-1
3 2 Roman Goddess 8.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Mim 30.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Book of Wisdom 15.00 2.9 5-1
2 1 Balenciaga Betty 20.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Backstretch Rose 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Progeny 2.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Dolce Sera 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Karen’s Honor 12.00 7 13-1
1 3 Belle of the Ball 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Woodward S.) – Woodward S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tapit Trice 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Crupi 2.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Skippylongstocking 0.80 2.8 5-1
4 4 Masqueparade 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Kay Army (CHI) 99.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Neural Network 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mighty Atlas 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Shadow Dragon 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Bourbon Chase 2.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Two’s a Crowd 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Leftembehind 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Wild Banker 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Engineer Empire 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Emmanuel 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Far Bridge 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 War Like Goddess 1.60 1.3 2-1
1 1 Get Smokin 12.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Silver Knott (GB) 2.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Daunt 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Truly Quality 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Teca 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Nilo’s Rose 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Frankie Hiccups 6.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Shadyside 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Melle Mel 4.50 5.9 11-1
9 9 Linda’s Jewel 8.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Gaga’s Hamsome 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Carol Said No 8.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Dancing Dakotah 20.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Ravenite 8.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Mi Bella Genio 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Nina Kay 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Graceful Warrior 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Silsbee 3.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 I Heard Somethings 20.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Higher Force 12.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Run Don’t Walk 10.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Disco Star 2.50 8.2 15-1
1 1 Miss C Banker 6.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Pawtucketshuffle 12.00 11.6 22-1
9 9 Fire Agate 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Dua Ibit 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Shock 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Vehemente 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Lakeside 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Blakely’s Wish 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Alpine Giant 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Vosburgh S.) – Vosburgh S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mufasa (CHI) 0 0-1
Baby Yoda 0 0-1
2 2 Scotland 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Dean Delivers 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Mufasa (CHI) 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Seven’s Eleven 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Baby Yoda 4.50 3 6-1
7 7 Lord Miles 20.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Comedy Town 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Create Trouble 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Magical Ways 20.00 4.8 9-1
15 15 Floki’s Flight 1.80 5.5 10-1
11 11 Wonderful Justice (GB) 8.00 6.4 12-1
16 16 O P Firecracker 6.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Assume Nothing 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Tidal Forces 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ruse 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Drakon 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Irish Prophet 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Classic Legacy 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Freedom Trail 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Wine Collector 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lincoln Hawk (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Irwin (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beuys (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Pilgrim S.) – Pilgrim S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Noble Confessor 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Without Caution 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Smooth Breeze 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Early Adopter (GB) 6.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Fully Authorized 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Flying Mohawk 6.00 7 13-1
5 5 Concord Green 4.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Zulu Kingdom (IRE) 1.60 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Prairie Dunes 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 Guile 4.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Magical Road 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Taparino 10.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Hours in a Day 4.00 3 6-1
9 9 Ramesses 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Beach Blanket 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Counter Attack 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 That’sthefactjack 30.00 5 9-1
2 2 Mighty Glory 30.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Lcgolucky 30.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Yingle Bells 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.