Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 22, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
First Strike 0 0-1
3 3 Lucency 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Cashmeup 12.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Express Cruiser 15.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Jay Vee Bee 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Cawkab 4.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 First Strike 3.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Ethereal Road 2.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Knicks Story 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Robo Man 6.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Hey Eugene 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Fitzpatrick 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Circle Back Jack 5.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 W W Crazy 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Phenomenal Dream 15.00 1 2-1
5 5 Diamond Lord 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Puckster 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Luckyasiwonswas 30.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Latta 3.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Cowboy Luke 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Starscape 2.50 6.5 12-1
9 9 Major Mack 5.00 9 17-1
8 8 Rope a Dope 12.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 J J’s Ranger 5.00 10.3 19-1
10 10 Good News Rocket 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 The Prince’s Spur 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Black Powder 2.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Furious Anger 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Our Dream Rye’d 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Onthestage 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Saint in the City 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 I’m Your Man 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Righteous Star 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Morally 12.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Penei 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Sunny Magic 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Lord Baranof 4.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Skip Factor 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Skater 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Modern Master 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Capo Luca 10.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Haunted Flame 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Proverb 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 On a Spree 1.80 1.3 2-1
7 7 Indian Gulch 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Hoodlum 4.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Pace 12.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Right Tone 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 River in Egypt 30.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Rocket Hotshot 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Nepal Up 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Forge in Fire 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Girl Math 0 0-1
5 5 California Sunset 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Hereforagoodtime 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Claire’s Charm 1.60 4.3 8-1
7 7 Girl Math 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Formaggio 20.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Crimson Sun 12.00 6 11-1
11 11 Queen Jubilee 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Princess of Omaha 20.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Me and Molly McGee 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 My Shot 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Minnesota Munny 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Golden Gamble 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Buriana 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bebedouro 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Epic Battle 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Gettysburg Address 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 On My Honor 3.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Coulditbemajic 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Peek 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Unworkable 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Vittorio 15.00 1 2-1
5 5 Fort Warren 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Sahalat 3.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Deer District 4.00 2.5 5-1
12 12 Billy Jack 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Gold Luck 2.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Condemn 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Gilmore 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Not Normal 20.00 6 11-1
10 10 Miacomet 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Midnight Escape 30.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Goodasiwonswas 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Halfway Joking 0 0-1
10 10 Shortstop 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Halfway Joking 15.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Blue Line 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Rowdy Riot 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Trust Issues 5.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Du Monde 30.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 I’m McDreamy 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Good Lord 4.50 6.1 12-1
3 3 Senior Officer 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Snook 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Uncle William 6.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Fly J’s Funtastic 20.00 12 23-1
14 14 Skyler 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Nyquist Frequency 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Braven 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.