Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 19, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 City Cocktails 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Reign Champagne 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Bisa 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Lady Riley 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Benevolence 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Airforce Lightning 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Mercy Otis 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Mary Loves Louie 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Deck of Cards 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Pens Street 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Punchy Girl 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Windy Bay 2.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Big Dig 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Chiquita Mosca 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Saranac Lake 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Two Lucys 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Elodine 5.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 No Show 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Benet 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Dame Maude Chardin 6.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Tiz Salty 12.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Gather the Facts 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Queen Clancy 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Yo Leven 10.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Avalon Girl 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Dia Estelar (ARG) 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Connive 8.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Baby Sassicaia 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mombayla 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Jazz Party 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Stacking Tens 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 I Got Game 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Poppa Echo 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Zap d’Etat 10.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Cocktailsnkringle 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Admiral Dennis 3.50 5.9 11-1
14 14 Kicking Clear 8.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Big Much 12.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Sonic Skidaddle 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Speed King 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Major Dax 30.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Pride’s Prince 8.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Tethered Soul 20.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Winter Creek 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Monsieur Big Man 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Yellow Brick 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Metalhead 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Will Take It 20.00 4 8-1
10 10 Generous Tipper 2.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 King Russell 15.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Culprit 3.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Brunacini 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Midnight Raid 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Kinetic 6.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Glen Airy 20.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Redemption Time 30.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Our Dream Rye’d 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Winston Wolf 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Native Shaman 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Multitask 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bendoog 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Salute the Stars 1.60 1.9 4-1
8 8 Pipeline 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Hayes Strike 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Oscar Eclipse 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Midnight West 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Gunoe 15.00 5 10-1
2 2 Guntown 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 House of Magic 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Three Polks 6.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 End of Innocence 3.50 5.2 10-1
7 7 Call Me Penny 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Miss Peabody 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 The Big Calhouna 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Sister Ella 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Goldblooded 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 She’s Splendid 15.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Moon Fleet 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Krickle 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Carolina Candy 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.