Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miracle Worker | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Agoo | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Temecula | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Findaway | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parkway | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shirl’s Bee | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ella Elizabeth | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beach Bunny | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Aberdeen | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sally O’Malley | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flight On Race Day | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Endless Glow | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Foxy Zorra | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Itookdamoneyhoney | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Effervescent | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lotus Case | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Vin d’Or | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr McGregor | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Merit | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Winning | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mandalorian | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Friend Louie | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Rum | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bettera | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ask Arthur | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gamblers Tail | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Interlock Empire | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vanished | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Union Mist | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Viable | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Churning Berni | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shezalittlestinker | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Legacy Defined | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vino Frizzante | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Runcatherinerun | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Leisure Time | 8.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prestwick | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Open Mind S.) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Run for the Hills | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zeitlos | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unsung Melody | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Am I | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Positano Sunset | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Backyard Money | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Harrodsburg | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Global Stage | 20.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Sweep | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Attache | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Own the Field | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Call Me Andy | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Linebacker | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | House United | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Edified | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Think Big | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Star of Wonder | 3.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Azteca’s Gold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Fasig-tipton Locust Grove S.) – Fasig-tipton Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Loved | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Free Like a Girl | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Musical Mischief | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shotgun Hottie | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Taxed | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Corningstone | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pigalle | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hoosier Philly | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Pocahontas S.) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Stilettos | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chattanooga Crew | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady Kathryn | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kimchi Cat | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Icona Mama | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quinn’s Promise | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Atomic City | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Cara | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | West Memorial | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Strong State | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Liam in the Dust | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hearts United | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Empirical Mischief | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pretty Sure | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Good Cheer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Claire’s Charm | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Louisville Thoroughbred Society S.) – Louisville Thoroughbred Society S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Skelly | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Closethegame Sugar | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Is a Choice | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Here Mi Song | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Necker Island | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cyclone Mischief | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Manny Wah | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Disco Ball | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Gulfstream Way | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | My Buddy B | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Iroquois S.) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Owen Almighty | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Politicallycorrect | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strummin | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Magnitude | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sandman | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Authentic Strike | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giocoso | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jack’s Time | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Firmus | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mesero | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jonathan’s Way | 4.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | First Resort | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Homer’s Odyssey | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tickled Quist | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Aire | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Handsome Pants | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thunderhawk | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ripped | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kinetic Control | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Monet’s Magic | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vaden | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cooper | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | So Sandy | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Seattle Road | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Abbi Fede | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.