Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 13, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Parking Lot Pours 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Citizen Judy 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Blushing Kam 5.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Rosato 4.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Little Bit O Storm 5.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Gala Rose 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Boutwell Time 2.50 8 15-1
1 1 Combattante 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Princess Kalamoh 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Corkage Fee 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Grace Given 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Perceptive 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Royal Blood 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Oh Macarena 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Lubu 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dr Kringle 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Artwell 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Papa Yo 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Crusading 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Tiverton 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Redhill 30.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Cowboy Image 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Boat House 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mr Scatter 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sultry Lass 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 America’s Vow 3.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Enclosure 1.20 4.9 9-1
2 2 Queen Leca (URU) 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Catmint 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Lexa 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 R Disaster 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Amy Z 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Party 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 These Apples 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Army Girl 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Mustang Lady 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Pula 4.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Brunch Punch 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Krickle 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hymnal 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Midway Vow 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 So Far So Good 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Classic Mystery 6.00 5 9-1
9 9 Our Prayer 4.50 5 10-1
10 10 Indy Label 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Play Maker 10.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Leametatrainer 5.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Political Spin 8.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 American Splendor 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gloriette 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Sweet Chablis 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Bourbon Breeze 5.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Balladry 3.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Sparkle of Hope 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Evie’s Encore 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Je Suis Rapide 12.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Baytown Lovely 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Xtra Extraordinary 15.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Bella Cruella 20.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 Very Wealthy 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 First Class Lady 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Taverna 8.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Evanescence 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Purple and Gold 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Eunomia 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 In the Stars 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Kai Kai 20.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Zealous Moon 20.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Catnip Hill 20.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Complex Secret 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Nosleeptilbrooklyn 10.00 7.5 14-1
13 13 Mendela 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Troubler 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sevenon 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Boot Trick 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 In for a Spin 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Leeloo 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Upper Case 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Speedy Traveler 3.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Mucho Macho Girl 5.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Bow Draw 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Lure’em In 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Be Like Water 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Like a Saltshaker 2.50 1 2-1
12 12 Yes I’m a Beast 3.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Spycraft 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 Cut Glass 20.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Born Flawless 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 One Cool Dude 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Eye Dee Kay 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Speitful Sam 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 My Grass Is Blue 30.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 South Decatur 30.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Ricochet 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Burninhunkoflove 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.