Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 12, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Down the Islands 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Gardiner 6.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Sell It 5.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Hank Hill 8.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Asleep At Eight 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Huevos d’Oro 15.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Baytown Guvnah 20.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Believe in Dreams 20.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 Colonel Yorke 4.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Brave Words 6.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Bamby Boom 12.00 7.6 14-1
14 14 Kerner 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Spenard 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 El Sargento 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gilded Craken 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Dance Some Mo 2.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Mucho Mojo 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 J T’s Imagination 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Harleezy 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 He’s a Angel 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tis Charming 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Bernin Hot 6.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Mo Hope 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Active Duty 5.00 2 4-1
13 13 Jon’s Street Band 8.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Remarkable Mo 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Cowboy Code 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Lucchesi 10.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Sesame Streek 8.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Dr. Storm 8.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Ghost Prince 30.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Grand Illusion 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mark Ur Way 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wicked Melody 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stingy 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Dazzlemesilver 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Extra Halo 5.00 3 6-1
12 12 Uncle Berley 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Eddie M 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Supremely 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Mystic Power 30.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Town Branch 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 City of Clouds 20.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Moonstrike (GB) 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Express Cruiser 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bettering 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tom Cat Tuesday 12.00 1 2-1
3 3 Free Country 4.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Perfect Force 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Mitty’s Griddy 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Ain’t No Disco 20.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Putting Eagle 10.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Campaign Trail 8.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Carcar Express 12.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 El Prestigio 3.50 3.3 6-1
14 14 Bob Mo 10.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Ican 10.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Hitchcock 8.00 6.1 12-1
13 13 Monsieur Big Man 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tethered Soul 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tuxedo Park 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Oliviera 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Anakarina 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Roshiell My Belle 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Echo Sound 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Into Golden Road 15.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Baytown Butterfly 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Thunder Kin 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bilyana 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Extra Anejo 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Recker Point 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Gulfstream Way 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Arro Smash 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Kavod 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Raise Cain 3.50 4.7 9-1
10 10 Bromley 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Confidence Game 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 W W Candy 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Gunoe 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Furio 0 0-1
3 3 Zandvoort 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Furio 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Copp 10.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Big Boat 8.00 3 6-1
13 13 Otter Mischief 15.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Kalahari Dreams 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 World Beater 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Quintillion 5.00 5.3 10-1
14 14 Galantini 15.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Bracket Buster 12.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Greatdayforhockey 15.00 6.9 13-1
15 15 I Got Game 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Money Man 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Camp Hale 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sir Gallivant 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.