Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 1, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hurricane Nelson 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Wajda 12.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Cuando 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Escondido 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Duration 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Montalcino 4.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 The Golden Gorilla 10.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Masmak 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Love Tempo (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Good Long Cry 4.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 Magenta 8.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Opulent Restraint (IRE) 2.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Indeed 8.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Nanananabooboo 20.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Ashes and Diamonds 20.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Quoin 20.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Bella Alessia 12.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Lady River Lily 50.00 10.2 19-1
15 15 My Shot 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Margot’s Angel 2.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Golden Gamble 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pediatric Princess 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hampton’s Affair 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Alexis Zorba (GB) 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Cigarette Boat 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Yarrow 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Spirit’s Mischief 15.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Urban Legend 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Determined Effort 3.50 3.6 7-1
9 9 Final Verdict 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Sugar Gray Leonard 20.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Brew Pub 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Printrack 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Tivy 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Backside Buzz 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Korrongo 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Waitlist 2.50 1 2-1
5 4 Cloud Forest 3.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Smile Mon 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 2 Masterwork 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Unclecharliesgift 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 5 Road Soda 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Cavendish 15.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Ice Time 6.00 6.4 12-1
2B 11 Eric From Miami 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Refuah 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 12 Crusading 8.00 SCRATCH
2 7 Within View 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Calling 12.00 1 2-1
12 12 Nolo Contesto 4.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Market Alert 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Critical Threat 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Classic Mark 12.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Charlie Five O 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Prince James 15.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Sutton Breeze 30.00 3.6 7-1
13 13 Gangly 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Winter’s Ghost 20.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Ski Country 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Flashy Alex 50.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Mason Mania 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Adventurous Spirit 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Guile 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Fire Baron 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 El Alacran 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Get It to Matthew 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Fattoush 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Get Ready to Rock 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Lcgolucky 30.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Bourbon Outlaw 6.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Hard Scholar 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Comanche Peak (GB) 10.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Smooth an Easy 30.00 11.4 21-1
12 12 Hedge the Risk 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Skyler’s Artemis 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Vincita 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ramesses 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Quickick 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 McKinzie’s Glory 30.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Scottish Lassie 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Snowyte 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 All the Feels 8.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Going Steady 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Soothe 8.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Pure Beauty 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mitoleta 30.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Endless Vow 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Kalik 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Dude N Colorado (GB) 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Paros 3.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Capture the Flag 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Ruse 12.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Tidal Forces 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Tosen Wish (IRE) 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Marwad (GB) 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Ever Dangerous 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Didinger 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Riot House 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mistical Curlin 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Classic Legacy 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mighty Madison 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 St. Benedicts Prep 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Signal From Noise 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Backyard Money 12.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Into Happiness 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Luna Moth 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Ringy Dingy 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Cupid’s Heart 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Royal Poppy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Set 4.00 1 2-1
2 1 Run Curtis Run 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 3 Scuttlebuzz 5.00 2.1 4-1
1A 4 Maxwell Esquire 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 5 Seaver 3.00 4 8-1
6 7 Acoustic Ave 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 9 Rough Draft 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 2 Boss Tweed 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 6 Russi 12.00 5.1 10-1
9 10 Big Prankster 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 11 Me ‘n Sap 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Bernard Baruch S.) – Bernard Baruch S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Running Bee 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Taking Candy 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Steady On 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Pioneering Spirit 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Rebel Red (GB) 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Beuys (IRE) 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Fort Washington 4.50 5.1 10-1
8 8 Film Star 1.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Phileas Fogg 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Jockey Club Gold Cup S.) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Highland Falls 0 0-1
7 7 Arthur’s Ride 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Highland Falls 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Tapit Trice 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Pyrenees 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Kuchar 30.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Disarm 8.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Bright Future 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mama’s Middie 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Irie Man 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Neptune Beach 15.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Four Eyes 30.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Senegal 6.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Wild Nugget 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Triple Word Score 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Landauer 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Can’t Stand Disco 30.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Ragazzo Diabolico 15.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Irish Tides 50.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Burn Rubber 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.