Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, August 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Limes Don’t Lie 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 First Class Lady 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Quietside 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lady Pippa 15.00 3 6-1
4 4 Amourette 12.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Ivory and Ebony 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Tiptop 15.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Ragtime 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Birdstone S.) – Birdstone S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Next 0 0-1
5 5 Next 0.11 1 2-1
2 2 Masqueparade 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Slip Mahoney 20.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Time for Trouble 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 Nimitz Class 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Colloquy 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Take the Charge 8.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Gun Maestro 8.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Kahala 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Bossmakinbossmoves 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Life and Light 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Pit Boss 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Higher Quality 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kick a Buck 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Sugar Hook 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 John the Baptist 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Bolt d’Plata 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Il Siciliano 4.50 5.4 10-1
4 4 Flicker (GB) 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Bad Boy Butch 10.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Mighty Glory 30.00 9 17-1
9 9 Vincita 10.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Ghost Prince 30.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Counter Attack 30.00 10.3 19-1
16 16 Bearings 1.40 SCRATCH
14 14 True Connection 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 El Alacran 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mano E Mano 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Awesome Life 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Tiffany Gold 3.00 1 2-1
6 5 In Our Time 2.50 2.4 4-1
4 3 Boss of All 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Shaman Princess 10.00 4.8 9-1
11 10 Hurricane Debbie 3.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Linarite 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 1 U Should B Dancing 8.00 6.8 13-1
8 7 Answer the Call 20.00 7.2 14-1
10 9 Miss Bonnie T 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 4 Golden Dagger 30.00 SCRATCH
1 11 First Class Cat 1.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Oh My Mia 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 She’s Always Rosie 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Boston’s Phinest 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Twirling Lulu 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Scythian 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Aranciata 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Yougottahavehope 4.50 4.5 8-1
7 7 Wild Mischief 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Early On 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Saratoga Snow 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Classicals Finale 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
May Day Ready 0 0-1
4 4 Love Tempo (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Pediatric Princess 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Magenta 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 All Night Revival 8.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Ballerina d’Oro 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Chantico 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Quoin 20.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 She’s a Swede 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 May Day Ready 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Lady River Lily 50.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Chelsey’s Choice 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dr Glick 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bossy Dish 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Il Suo Oro 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Implementation 0 0-1
6 6 Billal 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Implementation 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Top Gunner 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Cape Trafalgar 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Clear the Air 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Chattalot 5.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Market Street 15.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Celestial Glaze 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Adirondack S.) – Adirondack S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
The Queens M G 0 0-1
4 4 Dare to Breeze 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 The Queens M G 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Atomic City 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Whatintheliteral 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Italian Soiree 4.50 5.1 10-1
7 7 Anakarina 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Aguas de Cristal 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 White Sands 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Social Fortress 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Beary Funny 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 St. Joe Louis (GB) 4.50 1.3 2-1
10 10 Nostalgic One 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Officer Derick 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Now and Later 3.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Modica 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Skellig Island 10.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 King Freud 30.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 A Lister 20.00 10.9 21-1
12 12 Noble Huntsman 30.00 11 21-1
14 14 Andy Cant 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mr. Mendelssohn 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Incantation 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 On the Ledge 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Barnstorming 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Frizzante 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.