Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 18, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cinderella’s Cause 0 0-1
2 2 Bernietakescharge 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 1.80 1.2 2-1
6 6 Cinderella’s Cause 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Saratoga Kisses 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Racing Colors 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Waitwaitdonttellme 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Lavon 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 She’s Always Rosie 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Stop Giggling 10.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Roman Goddess 6.00 1.9 4-1
1A 6 First Class Cat 1.60 2.4 5-1
8 9 Six Pack Senorita 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 7 Will Be Famous 15.00 4 7-1
5 5 Dolce Sera 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 8 Princess Becca 4.50 7.1 13-1
3 3 Oh My Mia 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Supers Lucky Lady 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Boss of All 6.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Tipsy Runner 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Bella Voce 10.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Quiescent 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Mim 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Call Me Penny 30.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Spiritual Lady 8.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 My Cara Mia Mine 15.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Valentine Gift 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 The Big Torpedo 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Courtly Banker 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Fidelightcayut 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 B D Saints 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Six Fortyfive 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Cable Ready 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Solo Empire 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sonofaship 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Iridescent 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Stingy 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Squints 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Sweet Soddy J 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Tommy Two Socks 6.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Crusading 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Cool Operator 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Two Scoops 20.00 1 2-1
1 1 Flirting With Time 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Gathered 8.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Never Really Know (IRE) 12.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Moon Gate 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Abientot 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Will Reign 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Annie Goodbody 20.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Brindi (IRE) 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Good Conduct 8.00 4.2 8-1
12 12 Laughing Lady 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Paraiba Blue 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pursuit of Power 0 0-1
9 8 Lucency 4.50 1 2-1
8 7 Night Effect 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Own the Field 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 1 Principe d’Oro 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Reserve Currency 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Proven Hope 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 9 Refuah 12.00 6.1 11-1
3 2 Furious Anger 12.00 6.6 12-1
5 4 Pursuit of Power 8.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Two for Charging 8.00 9.3 17-1
11 11 Storming Chrome 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Parkway 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Special Dispatch 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kosuke 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Miss Pretender 3.50 3.4 7-1
2 2 Sweet Dutchess 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Catskill Humor 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Surprenant Cocca 4.50 5.4 10-1
6 6 Miscreant 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Ten Ten 30.00 8 15-1
10 10 Brooklyn Dantz 50.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Bertrille 20.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 Soca 8.00 11.7 22-1
7 7 Highway Harmony 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 La Vita Sofia 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Thundara 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Whispering Sea 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rainingatthebeach 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Blenheim Baby 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Takemetothebeach 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Wrigleyville 15.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Expatriate 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Proctor Street 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Centuria (IRE) 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Destiny Star 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Grayosh 4.50 3.4 6-1
11 11 Camera 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Mixologist 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Dancing Dean 8.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 She Prospers 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 America’s Vow 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sugar Hi 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Standoutsensation 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Regulatory Risk 1.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Golden Degree 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Albedo 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hey Toby 3.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Braca 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Very Stormy 10.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 In My Shadow 30.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Saka Shocka 4.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Tomschickenfingers 6.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Senegal 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Mama’s Middie 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Hottakejake 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.