Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 5, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Slack Tide 4.00 1 2-1
5 4 Trade Secret 1.80 1.8 3-1
4 3 My First Love 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 6 Beautiful Karen 6.00 3.1 6-1
1A 7 Diva Banker 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 April Antics 5.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Gringotts 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dancing Liana 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Teresa 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Welcome Back Babe 3.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Annieworkstoomuch 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Montauk Mystique 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Shehanah 3.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Maxing the Bank 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Noble Disguise 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rocket and Roll 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Paros 8.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Kuramata (IRE) 1.40 3.1 6-1
3 3 So High (GB) 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Tiberius Mercurius 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Landbiscuit 5.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 High Tide 4.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Colloquy 4.50 8.2 16-1
11 11 Skylander 2.50 10.1 19-1
9 9 Digital 3.00 10.6 20-1
8 8 Bossmakinbossmoves 8.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Light Man 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 What’s Up Bro 2.50 5 9-1
7 7 Chileno 2.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 M B’s Munning 12.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Toxic Gray 4.50 6.2 12-1
3 3 Daufuskie Island 6.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Kingdom 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Janssen 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Irie Man 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Awesome Force 6.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Within View 10.00 9 17-1
7 7 Waflr 5.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 A Lister 5.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Barron’s Bounce 2.50 10.2 19-1
2 2 Two Jay’s Way 10.00 11.1 21-1
9 9 Isomarshall 8.00 11.4 21-1
10 10 Perno 12.00 11.5 22-1
6 6 In My Shadow 20.00 11.7 22-1
8 8 Malibu Margarita 4.50 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Horseplay 15.00 1 2-1
2 2 Miss C Banker 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Slightly Busy 2.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Cara’s Dreamweaver 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Lookin to Rock 30.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tahila 3.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Aranciata 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 She’s Our Tiz 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Rad Llama 5.00 3.8 7-1
Cara’s Dreamweaver 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Power Seeker 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Donegal Forever 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Archie the Giza 5.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Perform 3.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Mistical Curlin 4.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Duke of Gloucester 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Curlin’s Wisdom 15.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Alternate Reality 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Brooklyn S.) – Brooklyn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Drake’s Passage 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Next 0.80 2 4-1
3 3 Crupi 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Spencer’s Boy Luna 30.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Dai Vernon 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Masqueparade 12.00 3 6-1
1 1 Lure Him In 10.00 4 8-1
Next 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Addagirl Addie 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Autumn 4.50 1.7 3-1
11 11 Lonchura 30.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 She’s a Natural 20.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Lady Laoban 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Sainte Chapelle 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Alittlebitnaughty 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Island Fox 8.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Savannah Dancer 50.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Summer Whirl 3.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Bobby M’s Girl 12.00 11.1 21-1
9 9 Dance On Air 10.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.