Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 30, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Musical Mischief 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Flashy Lass 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Sultry Lass 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Luna Moth 20.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Catmint 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Lexa 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Chiquita Mosca 30.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Pigalle 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Banned for Life 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Stinger Bee 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Handsome Herb 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Bourbon’s Fault 8.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Justifreak 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mischievous M 20.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Accident 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Think Big 6.00 6.5 12-1
14 14 Uncle William 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Neon Nights 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Show Master 20.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Mondogetsbuckets 10.00 10.7 20-1
16 16 Shortstop 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Touched Up 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 What a Blessing 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Moral Dilemma 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Magic Heart 20.00 1 2-1
1 1 Demolition Duke 3.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Idratherbeblessed 12.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Decanted 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Night Out 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Double Clutch 3.50 5 9-1
12 12 Funnyflame 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Unleash the Power 5.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 Single Dot Yaht 6.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Carcano 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Three On the Tree 20.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Tiverton (GB) 12.00 10.3 20-1
14 14 Pike Place 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sentenza 15.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Silver Heist 4.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Vinco 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Our Dream Rye’d 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Harleezy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Debutante S.) – Debutante S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Vodka With a Twist 0 0-1
7 7 La Marinera 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Adeera 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Vodka With a Twist 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 So There She Was 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Glee 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Daisy Duke 5.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Fortuna Mia 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Blue Kentucky 0 0-1
7 7 Implementation 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Gulfport 3.50 3.7 7-1
8 8 Two Eagles River 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Squire Creek 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Ludwig 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Blue Kentucky 15.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Mufasa (CHI) 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Wake Surf 8.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Cyclone Mischief 8.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 W W Candy 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maxfield Overnight S.) – Maxfield Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Raging Torrent 0 0-1
2 2 Otto the Conqueror 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 World Record 3.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Carbone 2.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Raging Torrent 2.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Hold My Bourbon 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 This Is Uscar 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Lucky Jeremy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Indy Magic 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cornishman 2.50 1.2 2-1
10 10 Lat Long 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Gun Party 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Elephants Ear 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Who’s the King 20.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Frosty Indulgence 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Carolo Rapido 5.00 5 9-1
11 11 Will Take It 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 House United 10.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Kitty Hawk 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Anchorage Overnight S.) – Anchorage Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heavenly Sunday 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Be My Sunshine 6.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Walkathon 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Personal Best 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Forever After All 2.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Tower Bridge 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Embrace Me 20.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Fast as Flight 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Misread 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Bashford Manor S.) – Bashford Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Conquering Cat 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bodacious 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Spiralizer 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Politicallycorrect 8.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Heat 4.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Ivan the Great 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 War Tax 8.00 5 9-1
11 11 Happyflyer 20.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Mo Hair Sam 20.00 5.6 11-1
13 13 Smoken Wicked 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Enduring Spirit 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Moneyline 20.00 10 19-1
3 3 Vinegar Hill 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Hanshin S. Presented By Jra) – Hanshin S. Presented By Jra

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Zozos 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Extra Anejo 5.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Best Actor 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Charge It 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Tumbarumba 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Frosted Grace 6.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Cagliostro 6.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Raise Cain 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Three Technique 15.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Happy American 30.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Injunction 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Bolt Action 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Rock N Roll Bolt 4.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 J J’s Ranger 10.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Ahandfulofcandy 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Varvatos 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Remarkable Mo 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Herchee 20.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Tennessee Lamb 15.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Hard to Say 8.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Danner 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Teen Idol 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Marcus Gift 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Firefight 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Radical Mischief 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Oscarworthy 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Indy’s Halo 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.