Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Herb Elias 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sweet Mo B 3.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Jersey Turnpike 4.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Certain Victor E 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Lookatmybuckle 4.50 5.9 11-1
3 3 El Dandi 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Millers Bro 15.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Xavi 8.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Freddy Boy 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Margoinabubblebath 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Center Stage 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Off Ramp 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Titled Lady 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Sweets Maker 5.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Rose Palace 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ministerial 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Doctor Nash 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Leblon 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Royal Act 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Leader of Men 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Atkins 4.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Greener Pastures 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Improbable Story 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Anakarina 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fleet Street 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Reliable Source 3.00 4.3 8-1
14 14 Empress Julia 3.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 And One More Time 4.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Empirical Mischief 15.00 7 13-1
13 13 Quinn’s Promise 12.00 8 15-1
7 7 Love’s the Answer 15.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Lucy McGee 12.00 10.3 20-1
10 10 Chatter 8.00 11.5 22-1
9 9 Buriana 20.00 12 23-1
11 11 Give Her Another 15.00 12.2 23-1
6 6 All Star Tout 12.00 13 24-1
5 5 Tequilaandtherapy 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Barbtourage 3.00 1 2-1
16 16 Mia Marcela 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Satin Blue 3.50 3.2 6-1
14 14 Wine and Waves 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Miyako 5.00 7.4 14-1
15 15 Barstool Babe 20.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Zen Moment 10.00 10.8 20-1
8 8 Jus Evelyn 15.00 11 21-1
10 10 Hue 6.00 12.1 23-1
3 3 Sang 15.00 12.5 24-1
9 9 Shezthefactor 20.00 12.9 24-1
13 13 Innocent Nyght 20.00 14 26-1
11 11 Fun Loving 30.00 14.4 27-1
6 6 Whatsrightisright 8.00 14.8 28-1
12 12 Harper’s Ride 20.00 15.3 29-1
5 5 Where’s the Wine 10.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vino Veritas 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Oh My Mia 4.00 1.9 3-1
9 9 Corri Felice 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Sky Rules 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Champagne Surprise 8.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Prison Bound 8.00 7 13-1
1 1 Streets of Paris 8.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Tiz Salty 15.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 E B Zoom Baby 8.00 10 19-1
2 2 Tan Pam 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fan the Fire 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Soaring Bird 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Metallic Man 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 The Queens Jules 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Circle Back Jack 15.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Born Flawless 3.50 7 13-1
6 6 Divine Armor 6.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Flags Up 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Papa Rocket 6.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Nullarbor 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Amaretti 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Connie K 12.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Pistol 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Into Love 2.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Yolo Charlotte 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Backyard Money 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Charriere 10.00 7 13-1
6 6 Willow Bend 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Harbor Springs 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Huntress for Hire 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Stunningly 3.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Fancy 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Cozee Rags 15.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Under Advisement 5.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Edge of Town 20.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Sabra Tuff 8.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Let’s Duet 10.00 9.8 19-1
9 9 Amber Cascade 6.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.