Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 22, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Oncoming Train 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Legendary Lore 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Woodythebidspotter 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Criminal Defense 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Jahez 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Chitwood 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 For the Flag 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Not So Close 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Sister Lou Ann 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Neverwalkalone (BRZ) 10.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Bling 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Watch This Birdie 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Jungle Juice (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Whitelick Road 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Melittlefrostgirl 6.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Indy’s Universe 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Mercy Otis 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Swiftwind 3.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Combattante 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Flash Wear 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 My Lady Bae 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Evie’s Eyebrows 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Windy Bay 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Outofnothingatall 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Thorny 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Windy Walk 2.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Lady Mercedes 12.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Chiquita Mosca 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Classic Performer 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sergeant Capps 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sweet Fantasy 3.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Sand Cast 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Mister Woodford 15.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Deeply Hidden 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Bostontonian 2.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Coming in Hot 6.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Mendello 20.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Missed the Turn 8.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Optical 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Outadore 1.20 1 2-1
8 8 Counterstrike 3.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Clear the Air 2.50 5.5 10-1
2 2 Bushido 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Zoombie 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Chiseler 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 B D Valeski 12.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Rithm Nic 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Chicago S.) – Chicago S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Society 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Vahva 1.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Chi Town Lady 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Positano Sunset 15.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Royal Spa 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Genetics 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Chilled 15.00 2 4-1
9 9 Sustancia 10.00 2 4-1
4 4 Joelma 15.00 3 6-1
8 8 Murphy’s Gift 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Kiss Me Again 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Queen of Paris 4.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Not Guilty 10.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Cararra 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Penny Royal 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Save Time 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mink’s Palace 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Here U Come Again 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 She Called 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Blue Squall 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tipsy Tammy 6.00 4 8-1
9 9 Amy Z 20.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 George’s Honey 12.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Caress 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 What’s Crackin 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Hattie T 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Eye Witness 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Happy Is a Choice 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Track Mate 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Scotland 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Radical Right 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Surveillance 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Payne 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Champlin 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Confidence Game 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Harlocap 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Fair Dinkum 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Clyde’s Got a Gun 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Lincoln Highway 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Miranda Rights 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Scoobie Quando 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Tres Soles 20.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Out of Deductions 15.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Bakwena 30.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Split the Wickets 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Space Launch 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Kigali 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.