Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Samarita 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mazoku 1.80 1.6 3-1
5 5 Protomagic 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Forever Home 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Pens Street 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Storm Charging 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Complex Music 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Galpin Sunday 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Fast Beach 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Outofpi 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Sell It 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Sound Cause 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Gallo de Fuego 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Like a Saltshaker 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Eternally Grateful 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Startdfromdabottom 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Communication Memo 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Spycraft 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Holding Pattern 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 One Cool Dude 4.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Speitful Sam 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Jahez 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Super Maxima 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 La Cara 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Moon Law 10.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Eclatant 3.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 You’ll Be Back 4.00 9.3 18-1
12 12 Lady Kathryn 10.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Two Turntables 12.00 10 19-1
3 3 Bonne Fille 15.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Panache 12.00 10.2 19-1
4 4 Hereforagoodtime 8.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 And One More Time 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Studio Hall 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Justinqueso 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mo Hope 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Strasse 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Sesame Streek 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Plunder 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Soco and Lime 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Forced Errors 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Bearings 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Remember the Fear 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Take the Gold 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Miss Jeopardy 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Controlled Temper 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Just an Opinion 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Mrs. Rip 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Mila Junes 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Idalou 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Balladry 12.00 7 13-1
8 8 Change the Play 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gold Luck 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pensacola 6.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Cats by Five 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Hocus 15.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Devilsgotacause 15.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Midnight Dajoey 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Augusta Melody 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lakota Territory 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pendulum 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Grecian Goddess 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Boss Lady Bailey 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Pharoah’s Wine 4.50 3 6-1
7 7 Stylish Sue 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Wings Like Eagles 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Call Me Toni 20.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Smooth Waves 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Empires Princess 30.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Get Twisted 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mobster 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Nuevo Empire 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 He’s a Joker 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Happy Grey 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Most Wanted 2.50 7.6 14-1
6 6 Cowboy Code 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Kinetic 4.50 8.2 16-1
2 2 Magnificent Rags 20.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Commuted 10.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Hard Scholar 20.00 9.3 17-1
12 12 Dr. Storm 15.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Brunacini 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.