Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 20, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Chanisa 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Bobbie Sox 3.50 1.9 3-1
5 5 Iced Mocha 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Miss Saipan 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Gatita Suave 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Hurricane Lassie 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stingy 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Quencio 4.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Barnaby 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Chryso Alogo 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Midnight Stormy 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Patriarchal 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Seven Natty Patty 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Pleasestoptalking 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Crushed Ice 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Malawnia 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Miss Harmonic 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Yzzy’s Bolt 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 West Hollywood 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mr McGregor 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Berrettini 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Degree of Risk 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Zverev 4.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Uno Mas Bourbon 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Stroke of Midnight 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Caroom 4.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Miracle On Ice 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Glen Airy 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Kitty Hawk 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Owen Almighty 0 0-1
Owen Almighty 0 0-1
2 2 I Got Game 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Bob’s Carrot 4.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Maybe Eye’ll Call 6.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Art Fair 10.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Innovator 5.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Giocoso 15.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Boss of All Bosses 10.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Dream On 6.00 9.9 19-1
10 10 States’ Rights 8.00 10 19-1
9 9 Owen Almighty 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ransomware 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Artwell 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Shakin Loose 12.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Ee Yah 15.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Quarrymen 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Iceatude 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Regal Rey 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Sawyer Fox 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Platinum Ghost 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Glittering Lights (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Callie’s Grit 10.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Papilio (IRE) 2.00 3 6-1
6 6 Zawish 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Infinite Diamond 6.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Tituba 8.00 4 8-1
12 12 Queens Command (IRE) 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Lady Emily Kathryn 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Flatter Me Silly 12.00 7 13-1
3 3 Paint Me Perfect 15.00 7.9 15-1
15 15 Bumble of Love 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Make the Boys Wink 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Best Performer 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sabalenka 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Pursuit of Liberty 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Zo Lee 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Come as You Are 0 0-1
7 7 Islander 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 A Dollar a Day 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Yo Leven 8.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 Come as You Are 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Baby Avery 15.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Bolt’s Broad 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Victorious Nyquist 15.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Beautiful Pharaoh 30.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Queen Clancy 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Vino in Florence 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Prestwick 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Alicit Intention 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.