Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 16, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Citizen Judy 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Meucci’s Revenge 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Moochie Girl 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Baytown Cleopatra 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Book’em 6.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Jewish Mother 12.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Spankerboom 8.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Rosato 12.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Preyathousandwords 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mo for Us 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Wowsers 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Lady Aberdeen 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Sombra Dorada 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Classy’n Connected 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Angels Above 6.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 American Splendor 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Strong State 0 0-1
4 4 Flaming Glory 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Tiffany 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Island Ride 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 The Feisty One 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Dare to Breeze 8.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Sherbini 10.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Talksalot 10.00 9 17-1
10 10 Huixtla 12.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Bisa 12.00 9.8 18-1
2 2 Strong State 15.00 10.3 20-1
11 11 Princess of Omaha 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bebedouro 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Zeca Diabo 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 On My Honor 12.00 1.9 3-1
3 3 Wicked Melody 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Du Monde 15.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Lord Diamond 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Let’s Go Champ 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Shiva 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Your So Sillea 0 0-1
3 3 Dazzling Blue 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Your So Sillea 3.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Nom de Plume 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 American Band 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Condensation 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Quick Munny 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Effortlesslyelgant 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rocky Joy 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Cloudy Holiday 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Sugar Hook 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Over and Ollie 12.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 Rebel Red (GB) 3.50 5.4 10-1
11 11 Cabernaydo 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Very Satisfactory 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Cowboy Cache 10.00 7 13-1
5 5 First Bid 30.00 7 13-1
8 8 Freedom Maker 4.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Pace Yourself 15.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 English Chunnel 20.00 10.9 21-1
15 15 Sandborn 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Firefight 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bomb Cyclone 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Motorcade 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Pico d’Oro 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 True Jedi 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Shuffle Dance 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Tagliatelle 3.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 You Make Me Happy 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Supremely 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Joe the Tailor 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Triple Elvis 0 0-1
5 5 Squire Creek 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Improbable Journey 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Lugan Knight 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 Triple Elvis 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Trust Daddy 15.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Briterdayzahead 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Echo Again 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Mauna Kea Bound 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Candy Man Rocket 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pro Oxidant 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Chattalot 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Fort Warren 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Insolito 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Invulnerable 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Macron 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Market Street 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Committee of One 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Yellow Card 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Inflation Nation (IRE) 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Linzer 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Zartownis 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Monsieur Candy 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Polster 20.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Sugar Gray Leonard 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Mackville 30.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Grande Tortugon (CHI) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Midnight Ambition 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cajun Cruiser 10.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Hallelujah Harris 15.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Lobo Salvaje 15.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Lucchesi 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 Beckster 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Guatape 15.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 Gun Show 3.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Blood Brother 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Keypad 20.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Baule Del Tesoro 15.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Munyhungry 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.