Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 15, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ask Arthur 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Django 1.60 1.4 3-1
5 5 Elko County 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Six Kings 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Cat On Time 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Tapit for the Win 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Goldys Lock 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Xtra Extraordinary 3.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Maui Mistress 4.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Casino Annie 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Lady Robo 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Ladle 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Crafty Gal 3.50 7.4 14-1
5 5 Tan Pam 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Cloudwalker 3.00 1 2-1
14 14 Antique Silver 12.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Niki Nine Doors 4.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Moon Spun 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 Princesa Celina 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Twirling Good Time 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Hidden Class 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Foolish 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Tipsy Runner 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Pelican Lane 15.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Miss Peabody 30.00 8 15-1
9 9 Caberneigh 30.00 10 19-1
13 13 Girls Weekend 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Zoe’s Prime 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Makeup 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Kohara (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 York Tavern 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Write Off Jerry 4.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Patrolman 8.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 J T’s Imagination 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Cashmeup 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Gametime Gladiator 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Washington’s Union 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Notorious Sixohtwo 20.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Mr. Faversham 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Starsandsixstrings 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Monomoy Girl Overnight S.) – Monomoy Girl Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Intricate 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Our Pretty Woman 1.40 1.2 2-1
4 4 Band of Gold 4.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Merasol Sugar 10.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Lucky Speech 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Promisemeanempire 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Letstalkaboutme 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Foreseen 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Queen of the Rodeo 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Heart Headed Woman 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Happy Happy 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Flawless Quality 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Chorleywood Overnight S.) – Chorleywood Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Webslinger 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Bold Act (IRE) 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Stone Age (IRE) 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Red Run 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Sugoi 5.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Anglophile 12.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Winning Spirit (GER) 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Wind Twist 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 King Curlin 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tawny Port 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Utah Beach 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Systemic Change 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 American Blaze 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Tiwanaku 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Yono 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Tapsasional 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Texas Red Hot 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Outlier 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Frosty the Soldier 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Background 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Low Country Magic 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Generous Lover 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Yo Puedo 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Best Seller 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Elliptic 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Midnight Tango 10.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Birdie Rose 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Wits and Wagers 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Appellate 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Luz Divina 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Moonlight Gambler 5.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Restless Dreamer 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Just the Sky 3.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Kimber Spice 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 On Command 15.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Big Dig 20.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Kiss Blue 10.00 10.5 20-1
10 10 Heart Spin 20.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Tiz Sweet Emotion 20.00 11.4 22-1
8 8 Adrasteia 20.00 12.2 23-1
15 15 Strike When Ready 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Toffee Apple 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Without Cause 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Centuria (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.