Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 30, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 I Got Game 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Predecessor 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Politicallycorrect 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Anytime Anywhere 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Flyin Private 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Sergeant Capps 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Malevaje 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Missile Cruiser 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 The Toner 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ladle 0 0-1
11 11 Default 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Perceptive 4.50 3 6-1
10 10 Chiquita Reina 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Bainbridge Dancer 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Peppers Girlfriend 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Maylen 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Joia Rara 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Ladle 20.00 7 13-1
12 12 Dice Arm 20.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Elliott Moon 30.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Tapwrit Warrior 30.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Moon Fleet 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sogno Di Campione (CHI) 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Phantom Ride 5.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Tiwanaku 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Man in the Can 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Master Game 3.50 5 9-1
8 8 Common Bond 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Bird King 15.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Outlier 15.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Roman Centurian 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Chulligan 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Thanks Frank 10.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Cloud Without Rein 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Patriarchal 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Remember the Fear 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Hallelujah Harris 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 On Tap 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Wholeheartedly 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Cowboy Luke 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Baule Del Tesoro 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Brother Rice 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Epic Battle 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Pinfire 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 B Sudd 12.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Moreau 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Veracruzin 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Brazen Boy 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Chryso Alogo 15.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Furious Anger 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Iceatude 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Funny Uncle 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 One Red Cent 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 A La Carte 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Extra Halo 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Midnight Stormy 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Mirari 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Killshave Beauty 10.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Coco Crush 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 She’s On the Rocks 6.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Private Credit 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Our Dotsie 15.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Cecile 6.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Candy Bar 10.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Wings Like Eagles 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Empirical View 8.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 Work of Fiction 15.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Dreaming of Mo 5.00 8.3 16-1
14 14 Esme 30.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Stunningly 1.20 SCRATCH
13 13 Catmint 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Condone 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hidden Class 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Extra Anejo 0 0-1
7 7 Extra Anejo 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Scotland 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Call Me Fast 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Eyeing Clover 12.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Saffa’s Day 15.00 3 6-1
6 6 Track Mate 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Raise Cain 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Oscar Eclipse 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Confidence Game 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Dreaming of Kona 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Low Country Magic 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Thorny 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Mila Junes 10.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Seven Natty Patty 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Bette Davis 12.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Pleasestoptalking 15.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Krickle 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Beauty N the Bolt 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Sacred Saint 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.