Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 24, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Philharmonic 0 0-1
4 4 Oneparticulrharbor 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Star Nation 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Beer With Ice 1.60 3.4 6-1
1 1 Philharmonic 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Nacho Chrome 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Freaky Z 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Charlie Tolu 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 B Grayson 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Art Fair 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Three Echoes 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Clock Tower 2.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Charbonnay 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Beijing Boss 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Street Lass 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Zeitlos 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Current Climate 8.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Daring Do 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Shootoutthelights 2.50 1.5 3-1
10 10 Miss Arlington 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Your So Sillea 8.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Last Leaf 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Run for the Hills 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 L J’s Emma 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Blame Day 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Breeze Easy (GB) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Candy Craze 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Morning Splendor 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Union Dame 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Computadora 3.50 4.7 9-1
6 6 Miss Harmonic 3.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Naughty Miss 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Pittore d’Oro 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Miss Makenna 0 0-1
3 3 Miss Makenna 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Fleet Street 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Quinquela 5.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Secession Brewing 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Hollygrove 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Tizntshelovely 12.00 4 7-1
6 6 Citizen Judy 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Troubler 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Flip Flops 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cyber Ninja 0 0-1
2 2 Cyber Ninja 3.50 1 2-1
17 17 King Russell 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Relampago Verde 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Domingo 5.00 4.9 9-1
18 18 Luna Vieja 3.00 7 13-1
3 3 Our Dream Rye’d 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Truly Quality 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sgt. Pepper 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Glen Airy 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Karma Director 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 My Friend Louie 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ironsides 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Beaumont Red 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Bean Machine 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Copper Missile 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Maximum Capacity 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mikealicious 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Better Bet 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Black Powder 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Trust Daddy 15.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Harrodsburg 0.80 2.7 5-1
7 7 Chiseler 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Rithm Nic 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 Baytown Chatterbox 20.00 4 7-1
5 5 Pressure 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mellifluous 0 0-1
4 4 Mellifluous 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Endless Reign 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Rocketeightyeight 2.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Lucchesi 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Du Monde 20.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Al Ameeq 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Overstatement 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Let’s Go Champ 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ryvit 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Just Might 3.50 3.8 7-1
8 8 Winfromwithin 5.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Spankster 20.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Condemn 12.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Candy Man Rocket 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Ambivalent 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mischievous Rogue 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cherubic Factor 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Remuda 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Let My People Go 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Minnesota Ready 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Antares 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.