Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 21, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Plants and Birds 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Prize Debate 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Secret Melody 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Lily’s Creed 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Catherine Blaze 3.50 6 11-1
2 2 Ize Smiling 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jack Bob and Larry 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Coach Kenny 4.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Drewmazing 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Magawildtime 8.00 4 7-1
5 5 Relentless Dancer 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Hooray Austin 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Bouldering 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Bind Faith 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tammy Lynn 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mt. Masada 12.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Wec Keah 12.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Clear Voice 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Big Trouble 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Alexis Rose 12.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Tipsy Runner 5.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 This Must Be Love 8.00 9.8 19-1
13 13 Hub City 12.00 10.5 20-1
12 12 Willowy 30.00 10.5 20-1
8 8 Hauntress 10.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Mor Mor Music 12.00 11.7 22-1
2 2 Catapulted 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Collier 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ice Cold Jimmy 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Foe 6.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Papa Flew Bombers 12.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Pearse 3.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Joint Venture 5.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Social Appeal 30.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Koops 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Johnnny’s Game 5.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Spoken Code 5.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Boliver 20.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Dats True Love 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Monarchs Glen (GB) 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Of the Moment 4.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Shady McGee (IRE) 4.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Niles Channel 3.50 2.1 4-1
11 11 Chaosmos 20.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Super Wise 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Millard’s Smile 15.00 4 8-1
2 2 Zultan 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Blurt 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Lookin At Betty 30.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Kinetic Swagger 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Paynt Battle 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnight Avenger 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Runaway Joke 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 B Fifty Two 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Sir Exton 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Kingscote 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Seven Anniversary 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Count Dracula 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Runnin Munnin 10.00 8 15-1
1 1 Empire’s Classic 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ocean Victory 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Zverev 4.50 3.4 6-1
9 9 Hope Joe’s Right 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Cabernaydo 4.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Celestial Joy (GB) 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Ultimate Value 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Sugar Hook 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 King Mendelssohn 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Hamilton’s Way 6.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Max Is G Money 15.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Donegal Dreamer 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kaely’s Brother 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sierra Hotel 15.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Breaking News 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Mark the Moose 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Two Dot 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Homeview 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Sun Squall 15.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Courageous Timmy 30.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Verb 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 West Warpath 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Letstakeitoutside 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.