Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 18, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Western Star 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mysterious Spirit 8.00 2 4-1
10 10 Snakebit 8.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Crossing Iris 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Marvins’ Posse 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Ide Like Hawaii 6.00 5 9-1
7 7 Lone Star Max 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 War Tourist 8.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Lacey’s Star 6.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Perfect Strike 20.00 8 15-1
11 11 Ricky Right 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 One More Sleep 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Calibrachoamatters 4.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Hard Kings 12.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Our Heatseeker 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Parker Now 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Skinny Bobby 4.50 4 8-1
11 11 Star Ready 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Nervy 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Iron Fortune 30.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Lt. Tent 8.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Billy Bowlegs 30.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Last of the Past 30.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Computerized 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kolomio 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Luna Vieja 1.40 1.8 3-1
2 2 Harold’s Cloud 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Ricky Bobby 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Midnight Raid 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Gilded Craken 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Laughinalltheway 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Angelic Knight 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 King’s Lute 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Like This 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Lucas Zip It 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 Le Monstre Rapide 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Slick and Fast 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Malaki Empire 20.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Shawn’s Solving 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Safarinfas 5.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Runlikecarl 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Summer in Adriane 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Gavel 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Linzer 4.50 2 4-1
9 9 Bear River 8.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Starstudded Affair 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Lucky Romance 10.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Criminal Intent 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Sheriff Joe 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Brennan’s Honor 15.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Exemption 12.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Hen Hen 12.00 10 19-1
3 3 Glacial Power 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Go Captain 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Union Mist 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Angel of Faith 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Starina 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Fasta Lavista Baby 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Liuzza 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Mischievousness 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Osterville Public 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Velvet Kisses 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Pretty Ana 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Purr Factor 4.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Without Cause 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cora’s Legacy 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Miss Harmonic 10.00 3 6-1
9 9 Remunzel 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 Money Works 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Love Light 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Saranac Lake 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Aunt Alex 6.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Beyond Beauty 5.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Triple Trea 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 The Donegal Clan 8.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Alder 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Honky Tonk Highway 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Cats by Five 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Awesome Ruta 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tipsy Tales 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Drewmania 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sweet Sunshine 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Coffee Crisp 20.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Martynas’ Joy 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Finley’s Magic 3.50 5 10-1
11 11 Lock It Up 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Our Pretty Woman 4.50 7 13-1
10 10 Stephs Coast 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Ragtime Lady 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Lady of Power 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Joyful Image 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fancy Quality (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 A Miss Deameanor 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 About to Set Sail 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Sister Ella 5.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Lil Chilly 4.50 2.5 5-1
9 9 Cairo Charm 12.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Baby Jane 20.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Betsy’s All In 10.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Grabiq 6.00 8.7 17-1
2 2 Holy Moly Shipman 15.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Moion 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Francesnfriends 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Delightful Halo 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.