Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Swizzlecity 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Coinmaker 2.50 1.3 3-1
9 9 Texas Tidelands 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Like Fine Wine 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Star’s Dream 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 She’s a Bossy Girl 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Mylies Star 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Super Et 15.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Kaitlyn’s Court 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Firingtothefront 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Princess Stella (IRE) 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Suporb 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Stack Shack 5.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Pat Hand Girl 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Kittenofthe Court 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Wait On Me 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Iggy Bigs 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 I Don’t Venmo 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Single Shot 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Stiff Drink 10.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Lead Me 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Western Star 12.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Tonteria 4.50 3.4 6-1
11 11 Viking Legacy 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Tactical Vision 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Meckes Priority 15.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Snakebit 30.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Go Brother Go 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fiery Playboy 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Scarlettsblackjack 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Half Again 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Charli Michael 3.50 3.4 7-1
2 2 Coach Kenny 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Heza Priority 6.00 5.6 10-1
6 6 Bouldering 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Young Tuscan 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Running Late 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 My Romeo Lima 5.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Summer Lover 8.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Microphone (IRE) 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Lunar Module 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Flawless Ruler 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Devil’s Harvest 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Hard Rye Guy 5.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Butler Cabin 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Single Ruler 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Chi Town Hustler 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Communication Memo 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Scooteranddabigman 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Premium 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Gunner Bay 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Indulge 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Criminal Defense 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sister Seek 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Blame Nellie 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Miss Tappy Tone 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Cahuilla 20.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Prize Debate 20.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 She’s Jersey Tuff 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Lunar Unit 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Lily’s Creed 12.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Catherine Blaze 8.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Doesn’thurttoflirt 20.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Espere 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Country Guy 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Over Paid 5.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Summertime Peppers 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Rising Koto Star 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 Craken Jax 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Flat Out Runner 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sounds Like Power 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Western Command 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Gilded Ruler 3.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Musical Spell 15.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Pepper Jack 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Mesa Spirit 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Proud Civilian 12.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 King of Song 12.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Son of a Birch 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Simple Logic 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Battle Scars 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Fleet of Hoof 30.00 7 13-1
13 13 Bench 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Trust Daddy 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Blackteca 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Handsome Harold 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Skinny Bobby 3.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Speightful One 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Chad’s Flashy Ways 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Tableaux Reseaux 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Puppeteer 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Kickin Chip 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Muncle 4.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Cat County 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Kah Nigh 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.