Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, December 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Optimal Courage 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Magic Castle 4.50 3 6-1
1 1 Breaking News 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Motion to Strike 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Mischief’s Machine 4.00 4 8-1
5 5 Cryptozonic 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Crimson Storm 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Thetruthisthetruth 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Just Passing Thru 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 It’sfiftyshadetime 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Carry On 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Hot Dame 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Miss Tulsa 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Seaward 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Pi Yo Princess 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Single Lady 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Money Well Spent 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Graceleadsushome 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Sixth Anniversary 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 She Told You So 4.50 4.9 9-1
12 12 Highly Wicked 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Ms. Cajun Queen 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Mo Bling 12.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Drewsilla 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Strawberry Sundae 10.00 10 19-1
3 3 Sky High Susan 20.00 10.9 21-1
11 11 Guitar Woman 15.00 11.3 21-1
6 6 Lovers Never Say 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Glenn’s Jumper 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Two Worlds 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Foolish Steve 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Two Dot 6.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Daahers Bully 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 The Green Mo’ster 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Homeview 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Lucky Louie 30.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Courageous Timmy 30.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Peso in My Pocket 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Involvednteraction 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gamer Nate 8.00 1.6 3-1
11 11 Bradfield Baby 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Back Bayou 8.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 House Bourbon 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Coal Coal Beer 12.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Bons Temps Roule 4.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Cypress Gold 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Captivating Star 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Emily’s Boy 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Temple of Peace 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Mo Diva 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fromanothamutha 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Master Game 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Quaternion 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Gametime Gladiator 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Harold’s Cloud 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Ricky Bobby 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Freddy J 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Redemption Time 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Kolomio 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Woodchopper S.) – Woodchopper S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Desert Duke 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Gigante 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Northern Invader 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Deccan Prince (IRE) 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Velocitor 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Dapper Dude 20.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mor Victory 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Point Proven 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Gluckstadt 30.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Machine Gun Man 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Winters Lion 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cash Fever 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hero Worship 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Evan On Earth 3.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Last Attack 15.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Midnight Avenger 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Thousand Springs 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Baron of the Nile 10.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Doncho 10.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Frio River 15.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Louis the Champ 6.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Magical Mojo 12.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 Konteekee 10.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Pago Hop S.) – Pago Hop S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Musical Score 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tufani 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Ann Alee 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Watch This Birdie 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Callie’s Grit 12.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Free Look 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Spartan Queen 8.00 4 7-1
10 10 Kerry 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Condensation 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Financial Advice (FR) 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Storm Bay 12.00 6.6 13-1
14 14 Batucada 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mo Bills 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Secret Statement 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Fit and Famous 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Angelic Knight 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Comanche Warrior 8.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Like This 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Myglorybee 6.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Family Creed 10.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lil Woadie 20.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 King’s Lute 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Tripple D Ruller 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Twofexusnexus 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Cajun Crazy 5.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Starport 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.