Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Win Ya Win 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Reckless Ransom 2.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Bibleman 3.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Greeley Went West 5.00 5 9-1
1 1 J B Gray 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Crusader Express 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Bunkie’s Song 20.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Sir Overanalyze 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Jrue Breeze 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Gallant Buck 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 New Dice 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Cheatin Charlie 2.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Lord Dylan 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 T J Munnings 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Over Calendared 12.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Carlos Punch 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ize Smiling 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Requestforproposal 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Kazillion 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Petticoat 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Freeform 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Gray Pearl 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Gottagonownow 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Mrs. Speaker 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Hide the Bride 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Plane Talk 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mister Mmmmm 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Fortuity 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mister Chairman 10.00 4 8-1
5 5 Tough Charlie 4.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Robo 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Twirling Roses 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Onemoretimearound 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Kaely’s Brother 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Calibrachoa Kid 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Holy Bayou 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Sono 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Drewmazing 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Hoosier 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Charco 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Cajun Connection 12.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Peso Pesado 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Order Up 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Jocelyn 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Clearly Copper 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Smiling Ellie 4.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Dooblay 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 English Luna 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Marshamarshamarsha 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Blue Vortex 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Signing 10.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Saucy Six 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Sweet Marin 30.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Spite Lite 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Princess Avery 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Front and Silver 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Love Light 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Union Mist 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Thorny 3.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Churning Berni 15.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Broughty Ferry 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Controlled Temper 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Angel of Faith 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Starina 20.00 4 8-1
2 2 Fasta Lavista Baby 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Sterling Luck 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Flathead Finale 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Best Performer 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 12.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Paint Me Perfect 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Sake (FR) 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Union Dolly 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Clever Joke 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Sweet Alyssa 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Now Yus Cant Leave 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Last of the Nile 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Catherine Blaze 20.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Souper Explosive 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Belgian Blue 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 She Told You So 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bella Paloma 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Thestral 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Theroanrunner 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 A G’s Gem 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cajun Mischief 10.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Jack the Whistle 4.50 1.5 3-1
11 11 Quail 3.50 1.8 3-1
12 12 Canal St. Cupid 30.00 2 4-1
3 3 Chaotic Jack 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Red Rock Solution 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Yockey Doodledandy 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 A True Target 8.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Run Rice Run 8.00 10.7 20-1
4 4 Bolie 12.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 Kah Nigh 8.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.