Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Two B 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bouldering 6.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Courtman 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Angelic Knight 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Half Magic 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Harpes Hill 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Blackteca 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Smart With Heart 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bikini Bottom 1.80 4.6 9-1
2 2 Big Star Baby 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Quart High 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Miss Pearl Hart 4.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Carpe Ostento (GB) 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Tap the Keg 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bourbon Life 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Tizzy Indy 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Elevated Game 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lou the Body 3.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Masterofhiscraft 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Card Trick 1.80 6.6 12-1
7 7 Red Moscato 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Visionista 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Luyv 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Certified Gem 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Bitsy Perfectmatch 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 My Royal Princess 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Entitlement 5.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Shewasn’teasy 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Grand Encore 30.00 1 2-1
2 2 Social Appeal 30.00 2 4-1
5 5 Big Tap Baby 15.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Monolith 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Joint Venture 8.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Solomon Vandy 3.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Z Z’s Prince 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Active Duty 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Gilded Craken 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Benissimo 12.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Lisa’s Guy 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 God of Wine 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Great Runner 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cafe Racer 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Earl of Dassel 8.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 One True Gentleman 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Beaumont Red 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Pyrenees 2.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Camaro Z 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Polar Bear Plunge 12.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Hamilton’s Way 5.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Benzodini 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Pearl of Aclaim (GB) 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Hope Joe’s Right 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Curlin Gunner 20.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Roussette 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Brie’s Mission 8.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Summer in Adriane 3.50 12.2 23-1
10 10 McAvoy 12.00 13.4 25-1
14 14 Sir Exton 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Max Is G Money 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Interlude 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Last Attack 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Empire’s Classic 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Firingtothefront 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mary Jack 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Isolation 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 G’s Squeeze 6.00 5 9-1
6 6 Suporb 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Taylor’s Secret 5.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 She’s a Big Star 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Sweet Bay 10.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.