Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Captivated Drama 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Judo 8.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Star Nation 12.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Jewelstown 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Dual Monarchy 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Inexorable 3.00 4 8-1
2 2 Sound Doctrine 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Overly d’Oro 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cool Rags 0 0-1
2 2 Cool Rags 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Can’t Hush This 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Koufax 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Alfio 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Mohaafeth 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Mine Own Star 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 The Honorable One 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cigarette Boat 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Tasterfor the King 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Cuore Sacro 5.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Command’ Oro 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Airborne Elite 12.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Salt Spray (IRE) 3.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Pinfire 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 American Raider 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Halmstad 12.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Levee Was Dry 12.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Mr. Commander 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Boat Song 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kattath 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Balsa 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Rider’s Special 3.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Backside Buzz 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Captain Jack 6.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Gold Luck 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Iuka Miss 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Remembering 3.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Motel Mischief 12.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Collier 20.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 She’s Arodeoqueen 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Umeboshi 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Sessa Sisu 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Takethesilver 4.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 My Favorite Girl 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sam’s Treasure 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Streaming Now 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Twirling Queen 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Zadorsky 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Raining Sugar 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Dot 4.50 4.9 9-1
2 2 Fibber 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Too Fast for You 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Judy Elaine 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 English Tavern 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Tatanka 10.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Yamato 2.50 1.9 4-1
10 10 Temper Tantrum 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Cowboy Justice (GB) 20.00 2.7 5-1
14 14 Red Run 5.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Storm the Court 4.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Samyaza 20.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Trafalgar 15.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 The Reds 10.00 10.3 20-1
5 5 Laugh a Lot 15.00 10.5 20-1
13 13 What a Country 20.00 12.7 24-1
17 17 King’s Ovation 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Brigadier General 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Ethical Judgement 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sant’ Antimo 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Quadra Island 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Tropic Storm 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mahoney Road 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Swimmingwithsharks 10.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Bolt Above 10.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Lend It Tewmey 6.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Rungius 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Mister Sharpie 10.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Midway Miracle 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Born Flawless 15.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Go Virtual 20.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 David’s Tuition 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.