Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Lonesome Glory H.) – Lonesome Glory H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 L’Imperator (FR) 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Snap Decision 0.80 3.1 6-1
3 3 Barbados (IRE) 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Merry Maker (IRE) 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Restitution (FR) 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Proven Innocent 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 City Dreamer (IRE) 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Cibolian 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Braggadocious 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Opportunity Set 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Cloud Forest 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Strapped 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Quality Chic 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Black Rain 1.60 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Albedo 20.00 1 2-1
2 2 Yo Banana Boy 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Slammin Gold 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 In a Minute 12.00 4 8-1
6 6 Quiet Wisdom 2.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Aggelos the Great 3.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Catalina Crush 2.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Solo in Paris 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stella Mars 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Spinning Colors 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Sweetie 15.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Golden Rocket 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Orange Freeze 2.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Collaboration 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Mia Bea Star 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 April Antics 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tempermental 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Amanda’s Folly 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Happy Bob 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Strong Light 12.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Scotto 30.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Good Rapport 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Gut Feeling 2.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Mama’s Gold 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Inspector 4.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Playingwithmatches 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Piccata Prince 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Charlie’s Express 5.00 4.5 9-1
6 8 Stunnem 8.00 6 11-1
7 10 Shore Time 15.00 6.3 12-1
1A 5 Rudy Rudy Rudy 4.50 6.7 13-1
1 1 Don Vino Vici 4.50 7.1 13-1
1X 9 Mighty Glory 4.50 7.3 14-1
8 11 Aleah Aleah 8.00 7.5 14-1
2 3 Mikealicious 3.00 7.9 15-1
3 2 Mucho de La Mancha 15.00 8.8 17-1
2B 7 Where’s Chris 3.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fleetfooted 8.00 1 2-1
3 2 Dekanter 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Georgees Spirit 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 3 Dontlookbackatall 1.60 2.7 5-1
9 10 Vienna Code 30.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Play the Music 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 8 Feathers (IRE) 12.00 7.7 15-1
1A 7 Lady Mia (FR) 1.60 10.2 19-1
2 1 Queen Olly (IRE) 6.00 12.5 24-1
14 15 Mongolian Panther 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Miss Domina 15.00 SCRATCH
15 16 To a T 12.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Portage 3.50 SCRATCH
11 12 I’mhavingamoment 3.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Obrigada 4.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Fancy Azteca 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ghostly Girl 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Yogi 8.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Harlan’s Bond 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Roman Goddess 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 My Girl Jal 10.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Susie’s Saver 20.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Divine Cross 3.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Dashing Della 30.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Shigeko 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Space Launch 1.20 1 2-1
3 2 Eddie the Great 20.00 1.4 3-1
5 6 Covert Kat 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Khafre 12.00 2.7 5-1
7 8 Our Country 10.00 2.7 5-1
1A 5 Ghostlyprince 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 9 My Romeo Lima 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 3 Spettro 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 10 He’s Got It 30.00 6.5 12-1
10 11 Arrio 10.00 7.8 15-1
11 12 Magical Ways 3.50 SCRATCH
12 13 Brooklyn Diamonds 3.00 SCRATCH
1 4 Achilles Heel 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shaman Princess 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 She’s a Natural 20.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Cerretta 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Voleuse 3.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Showemyourheels 6.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 True Martini 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Laurana 4.50 10.3 19-1
6 6 Cherbourg 15.00 10.4 20-1
3 3 Supers Lucky Lady 10.00 12.9 24-1
7 7 Army of Thoughts 20.00 13.2 25-1
14 15 Better Humor Me 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Boston Strong Mama 6.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Teresa 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dance With Me Babe 10.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Bussia 3.50 SCRATCH
15 16 Island Rose 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.