Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 20, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Portage 0 0-1
4 4 Sister Maha 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Feathering 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Stunningly 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Revolving Credit 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Ms. Solveig 15.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Portage 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Dark Princess 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Little Prankster 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Honest Al 0 0-1
7 7 Antonio of Venice 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Catire Vizcaya 8.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Walstib 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Group Ticket 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Honest Al 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Astronomico 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Lindsay’s Button 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mucho de La Mancha 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sandrone 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Highly Flammable 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 King James 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Destin’s Mission 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Sugar Gray Leonard 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 War Terminator 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Giramonte 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Heymackit’sjack 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Jester’s Song 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Camm’ Duke 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 With This Vow 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Pretti Xtreme 1.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Mariah’s Fortune 12.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Good Penny 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Greatest Love 15.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Halo City 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Vegas Weekend 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Crown That Saint 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Rock Star Boy 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Threewhitesoldiers 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Balance Sheet 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Mayor Jack 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Uncle Eddie 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Crazy Mason 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Run Jalen Run 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Cowboy Luke 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Neom Beach 0 0-1
3 3 Kodiac Wintergreen (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Neom Beach 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Dancing Nancy 4.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Ever So Sweet (IRE) 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Lamorna 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Raichu 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 San Pantaleo 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Gemofaperformance 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Parade Ring (IRE) 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Impudence 15.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Life’s Joy 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Later Darling 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 4 Spirit of St Louis 1.00 1 2-1
1A 8 Call Me Harry 1.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Citizen K 2.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Frank’s Art 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Conman 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Agent Creed 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Grape Nuts Warrior 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Ghost Giant 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 9 Graded On a Curve 20.00 6.9 13-1
11 12 Wild Banker 6.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Thrill of It 8.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Bossmakinbossmoves 15.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Majority Partner 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Know It All Audrey 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mosienko 1.60 1.4 3-1
6 6 Invaluable 10.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Sue Ellen Mishkin 10.00 1.9 3-1
8 8 She Caught My Eye 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Knowing Glance 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Ruvies in Time 20.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Happy Sophia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Exact Estimate 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Ari Gold 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 James Aloysius 5.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Chasing the Crown 4.50 2.5 5-1
12 12 Napoleonic War 8.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Whisper Not (GB) 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Lucky Curlin 30.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Saratoga Flash 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Pine Knoll 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Full Screen 30.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Tough Tickets 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Ocala Dream 15.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 High Tide 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Guntown 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (New York Stallion Series S.) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Twenty Six Black 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Vacation Dance 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Ramblin’ Wreck 1.40 3.2 6-1
6 6 Willintoriskitall 20.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Itsallcomintogetha 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mama Banned Me 30.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Laurel Valley 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Jackson Heights 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Gem Mint Ten 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.