Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Gabe 0 0-1
2 2 Fight Fiercely 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Giroovin 6.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Speakinofthedevil 0.60 1.5 3-1
4 4 Gabe 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sway’sinmydna 20.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 With Know Name 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jolly Miss Jill 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Yogi 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Susie’s Saver 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Alice Kramden 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Handle the Truth 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Bravo Regina 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Jackson Avenue 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Joey the Fish 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Sunset Louise 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Linny Kate 30.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Skratch Kat 3.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 Pharoah’s Heart 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sail By 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Veronica Greene 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beechnut Trophy 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Pleasant Passage 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Beaute Cachee (FR) 1.60 SCRATCH
1 1 Miss Carol Ann (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Charger 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ensign Parker 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Merchants of Cool 20.00 3 6-1
8 8 Norgay 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Hereby 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Let Freedom Spring 1.80 3.5 7-1
5 5 Prince of Joy 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Central Pride 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Khadullah 0 0-1
1A 7 Khadullah 1.60 1 2-1
9 10 A Knight’s Courage 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 1 Mama’s Middie 5.00 6.6 13-1
4 3 Albedo 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 8 Ice the Kicker 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Collected Special 6.00 7.5 14-1
3 2 Dixie Pharaoh 8.00 7.6 14-1
8 9 Always a Warrior 4.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Jake’s Orchard 30.00 8.4 16-1
1 4 Antonio of Venice 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Dr Kringle 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 He’s Got Swagger 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 5 Ringside 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 8 Rockstar Red 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Dreamwithinadream 30.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Gold Templar 50.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Lastly 30.00 8.5 16-1
1A 13 Happy Bob 6.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Fast Boat to Skye 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mo Saturdays 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Game Keeper 4.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Cumberland 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Liquid Addiction (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ouster 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Prove Worthy 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Saqeel 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Film Star 2.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 The Prince’s Spur 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Pledgeofallegiance 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Complete Agenda 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Baby Yoda 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Nakatomi 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Sheriff Bianco 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Mr Phil 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Shooters Shoot 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Bourbon Calling 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Quick Call S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation) – Quick Call S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Briterdayzahead 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Two of a Kind 8.00 1.4 3-1
12 12 Acoustic Ave 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Uncashed 5.00 5 9-1
11 11 Joey Freshwater 4.50 6.3 12-1
2 2 Kigali 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Charging 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Eye Witness 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Son of a Birch 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Dr Oseran 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Gaslight Dancer 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Maggie 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Irish Empress 8.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Strange Fruit 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Northway 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Cause I’m Elegant 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Magnolia Wind 12.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 She’s a Nine 5.00 4 7-1
5 5 Marley’s Ghost 8.00 4 7-1
9 9 Bella Sonadora 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Sarah’s Dialed In 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.