Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Just Steel 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Saisir Le Jour 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sheriff Joe 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Special Element 3.50 6 11-1
5 5 Arteta 4.00 6 11-1
1 1 Pirate 0.80 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sugar Gray Leonard 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Win for Gold 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Talkin Pharoah 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 East Coast Girl 4.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Iceatude 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Charlie Five O 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Tommy Gun 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Isola (IRE) 0 0-1
5 5 Vanished 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 King’s Secret (GB) 15.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Epic Miss Justice 10.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Best Performer 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Isola (IRE) 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Paris Style (FR) 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Heavenly Appointed 8.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Hola Gata 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 No Deli (IRE) 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Why Waste Words 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Taciturn 5.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Portage 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Party At Grants 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Diana S.) – Diana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 In Italian (GB) 0.40 1 2-1
1 1 Fev Rover (IRE) 12.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Marketsegmentation 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Fluffy Socks 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Whitebeam (GB) 5.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mariachi 0 0-1
4 4 Nineteen Oysters 10.00 1 2-1
8 9 Mariachi 2.50 1.1 2-1
2 1 Always Charming 4.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 On the Hill 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Agility 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 2 Zeebear 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Red D G P 15.00 3.1 6-1
7 8 G Munning 5.00 4.2 8-1
1A 7 Newport Bridge 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kosuke 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lady Jasmine 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 From Hello 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Solib 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Snowy Evening 4.50 5 9-1
6 6 Sals Dream Girl 6.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Waterville 10.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Sweetest Princess 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Galley Head 30.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Saratoga Chrome 20.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Silver Skillet 3.50 6.8 13-1
8 8 Lady of Thoroton 20.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Candy Monet 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 April Antics 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chasing Daylight 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Timely Conquest 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Glitter Up 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Breeze Easy (GB) 1.80 1.1 2-1
7 7 Tracy Ann’s Legacy 10.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Lady Milagro 5.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Playlist 2.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Bowl of Cherries 6.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Bombdiggity 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Hydra 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Quick Munny 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bon Adieu 0 0-1
7 7 Sweet Liberty 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Foxy Cara 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Krystalheir 15.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Ichiban 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Bon Adieu 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Montauk Mystique 20.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Mim 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Shotgun Patsy 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Island Rose 6.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Embraceable Gal 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Neigh Jude 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Kelso S.) – Kelso S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Annapolis 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Casa Creed 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 English Bee 20.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Filo Di Arianna (BRZ) 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Big Everest (GB) 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Ice Chocolat (BRZ) 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Anaconda 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Mid Day Image 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gun It 0.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Sanford S.) – Sanford S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Jive 0 0-1
9 9 Gold Sweep 0.60 1 2-1
4 4 Yo Yo Candy 15.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Call the Cavalry 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Jive 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 His Rights 30.00 5 9-1
3 3 Dickens 8.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Market Street 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Triple Trea 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Ramming Speed 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Factor U and Me In 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Beer Run 2.00 1 2-1
1 6 Monet Never (IRE) 10.00 1 2-1
4 3 Flat Top Box 4.50 2 4-1
6 5 Paxsational 30.00 2.4 4-1
3 2 Cigarette Boat 15.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 American Know How 15.00 3.2 6-1
12 12 Baie Longue 5.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Two Minutes Apart 20.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Metallurgic 12.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Party With Smarty 50.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 City Fever 8.00 9.6 18-1
5 4 Nickel Nickel 10.00 9.9 19-1
14 15 Ludwig 1.80 SCRATCH
1A 14 Schnittker 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Alexis Zorba (GB) 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.